Lessons from large crowds

by Shalman Scott, GUEST COLUMNIST

THE ATTENDANCE at the public session of the 68th annual conference of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) on November 20 was huge, perhaps one of the largest gatherings of party supporters ever assembled in Jamaica.

It represents an unmistakable reflection that the JLP base has been energised and mobilised, partly linked to the emergence of the youthful and affable prime minister, Andrew Holness.

But such displays of support by party faithful require lots of money: To pay for the transportation, to print T-shirts, provide lunch, drinks and cigarettes, plus money to induce reluctant and disinterested supporters to board the buses for the ride. Because politics is more about perception and emotion, and less about logic and rationality, political crowds can have a powerful psychological impact on onlookers and potential voters. Hence, the use of the crowd game by political parties to advance their attractiveness to the electorate.

The People's National Party's (PNP) Portia Simpson Miller might also view the turnout of supporters in Emancipation Square in Spanish Town at last night's mass rally as a snapshot of a wider national portrait.

Several psychology theories confirm that individuals are emboldened and validated by the actions of others, a principle that undergirds the motivation to exploit the crowd card in our competitive democracy. One look at the crowd size at the meeting of an emerging third party indicates to many the shelf life of such organisations, 50 of which have emerged and died since 1944.

And yet, crowds at political meetings can, sometimes, be misread. Such was the case for Michael Manley, when, on the night of calling the 1980 general election in Sam Sharpe Square in Montego Bay, he declared that 150,000 strong can't be wrong! The rest is history. Manley's PNP suffered a devastating defeat at the hands of the JLP.

Then it was the JLP's turn to fall victim to the fickle nature of the crowd in 2002 when then leader, Edward Seaga, declared at a mass meeting in St Elizabeth: "If I don't win this election, God is asleep!" He lost.

Likewise, the gatherings and media hype associated particularly with the JLP 2007 election campaign - for those who care to notice - produced the smallest majority, of four seats, for a ruling political party since Independence in 1962. Not to mention the margin of victory of 0.7 per cent of the popular vote (50.3 per cent JLP to 49.6 per cent PNP), the narrowest since universal adult suffrage in 1944.

Despite these realities and the scientific use of poll findings, the political parties continue to play the numbers game. And nothing may be wrong with playing such games as a motivational and propaganda tool.

Where it does get a bit confusing is often when a political party begins to believe its own propaganda. The JLP, after successfully coming out victors in by-elections in Portland Western, St Catherine North Eastern and Clarendon North Western, saw Karl Samuda beating his chest about the impregnability of the party machinery and how any other election would see the PNP conquered by the power and might of the JLP organisational apparatus.

Then came the Cornwall Mount parish council by-election in Westmoreland Central, which was flooded by hordes from both major parties. The operators of laptops were busy under mango and breadfruit trees divining the size of victory for their respective party.

By the time the dust settled at the close of polls, the JLP bigwigs scampered from the scene, desperately trying to avoid speaking to the media to explain how they were defeated.

Shock and awe

Three decades ago, D.K. Duncan, minister of national mobilisation, exclaimed on television in utter shock and awe on election night in 1980 when the JLP came close to winning all the parliamentary seats from the PNP: "What happened to the poor people votes?"

And my friend John Maxwell, of blessed memory, sweated profusely while in the air-conditioned studio of JBC as he watched in disbelief as his party, the PNP, headed for defeat.

Such are some of the lessons of the unreliable nature of political response and behaviour, even in the face of massive crowds at political rallies.

What is clear is that it's not over till the fat lady inks her finger. And it's also fascinating that both the PNP and JLP are aiming to increase their seat count by 10, and have each put the same constituencies in their winning column!

Shalman Scott is a political analyst. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and shalscott@hotmail.com.