Robotham's 'low party legitimacy': A look at the polls

Lawrence Powell, GUEST COLUMNIST

At the recent forum organised by The Gleaner on the state of the Jamaican economy, Don Robotham, former UWI professor now teaching in New York, warned that Jamaica's two major political parties lack the social legitimacy necessary to rescue the country from its accumulating economic woes. He lamented a tainted political culture of "enormous disillusionment", in which both parties in the post-Trafigura, post-Coke era find themselves reduced to "a low level of legitimacy ... and any party which implements [solutions] will immediately face a tremendous loss of public support".

Professor Robotham went on to characterise the existing parties as "vote-spinning machines" that lack popular credibility and the political courage to grapple with the country's deepening problems. Others present at the forum, most notably Trevor Munroe of the National Integrity Action Forum, stressed the need to strengthen civil-society coalitions, to fill the gaps of this loss of popular confidence in the parties.

Robotham admonished that without a more inclusive involvement of civil-society groups in crafting policy solutions in the post-election period, "if you look objectively at our current political system, you cannot but conclude that the existing political structures are unable to implement the kinds of policies and programmes that the country needs".

All of this begs the question: To what extent is Robotham's 'lost legitimacy' critique actually the case? In the eyes of the public, how much confidence do the political parties and governance institutions actually have, in comparison with other social institutions and forces in Jamaican society? Several national surveys conducted between 2006 and 2010 by the Centre for Leadership and Governance, in conjunction with UNDP, USAID and the Latin American Public Opinion Project, (LAPOP), help provide some important clues.

The first national survey conducted by the newly formed Centre for Leadership and Governance, back in 2006, asked a representative sample of 1,338 Jamaicans to evaluate some of the 'basic institutions' that make up Jamaican society, including the political ones. As can be seen in the figure on this page, it found that political and governmental institutions, and the parties in particular, are considered to be among the least 'legitimate' institutions in the society. Only six per cent of Jamaicans said they had "a lot of confidence" in the political parties.

Further to this trend, only eight per cent expressed confidence in the Parliament, nine per cent in the judiciary, 10 per cent in the Government, and seven per cent in the police. This compares rather poorly with the more trusted, bedrock institutions of the society - families (58 per cent), universities (50 per cent), schools (52 per cent), and churches (47 per cent).

contrast

The contrast between the most, and least, 'legitimate' institutions in the eyes of Jamaicans is unmistakable. Political figures, of either party, clearly do not fare well in this contrast. Note also that this 2006 survey was taken prior to both the Trafigura and Coke affairs, so it is unlikely that the observed gap between political and other institutions has improved in the interim. These patterns can be seen as a sort of base-line measurement of institutional confidence levels in the culture, generally.

Now, fast-forward to a more recent taking of the national pulse. The 2010 national survey (in conjunction with LAPOP and USAID) asked a sample of 1,504 Jamaicans to evaluate whether they 'trust' or 'believe in' a variety of basic political institutions and functions. The contrast between 'low confidence' and 'high confidence' in the system comes into high resolution if you compare the lowest with the highest response categories to these survey questions related to political legitimacy.

'low-legitimacy'

The 2010 USAID/LAPOP survey asked respondents to rate their 'trust' or 'belief' in a variety of these political entities, on a 1-to-7 scale ranging from 'not at all' (1) through 'a lot' (7). Note that for the political parties, the police, the national government, the Parliament and parish council, lower levels of trust generally prevail - with relatively few Jamaicans locating themselves in the high-trust category (6 or 7 on original scale), and many Jamaicans locating themselves in the low-trust category (1 or 2 on the scale).

Similarly, this 'low-legitimacy' pattern can be glimpsed in the percentage who trust in elections, and the prime minister. Institutions and organisations that seem to promise citizens social justice, legal protection, empowerment, or fairness seem to do somewhat better in terms of perceived legitimacy. Thus, the Jamaica Defence Force, Electoral Commission, and Commission for Prevention of Corruption show more Jamaicans who say they have strong trust.

So far, much of this evidence seems to bear out Robotham's observations of "enormous disillusionment" and compromised party legitimacy. Note, however, that there is another, more comforting, story embedded in these otherwise bleak figures. The 2010 statistics also clearly show that a substantial portion of Jamaicans do, in fact, have some degree of at least moderate trust (scoring 3, 4 or 5 on the original scales) in many of these political institutions and processes.  This seems to suggest that they do not necessarily consider the present system to be hopelessly broken, or beyond repair. There is much disenchantment in evidence here, but not necessarily a wholesale loss of legitimacy.

These national surveys were conducted at UWI, according to rigorously professional standards, and using carefully constructed representative national samples. Overall, there seems to be evidence here that Robotham is on to something with his critique, especially the low relative status of political parties with the citizenry, vis-à-vis other social institutions. He has perhaps overstated the immediate threat to legitimacy and the ability to govern with continued popular support, but there is nevertheless a worrisome pattern in these surveys that tends to support his concern - and that of other Gleaner forum participants like Munroe - that the difficult, unpopular measures either party would need to implement in the post-election period will require a more inclusive outreach, and substantial coalition building, to trusted civil-society groups and the Opposition, than has been the customary practice of Jamaican parties up to this point.

Whoever wins the election, one can only hope that they can muster the political courage to set aside the usual combative impulses and do that for the greater good of the country. In the post-Trafigura, post-Coke era, a stance of narrow party parochialism does not seem to be selling very well for either of the major parties.

Lawrence Alfred Powell is honorary research fellow at the Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (COMPASS) at the University of Auckland, New Zealand, and the former polling director for the Centre for Leadership and Governance at UWI, Mona. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and lapowell.auckland@ymail.com.