EDITORIAL - Andrew Holness' challenge

As the putative leader of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) during the period of transition from Bruce Golding to himself, Andrew Holness was keen to tell interviewers that he was as much prepared to win as to lose.

Those references were to the fact that despite his front-runner status, he might still be challenged. Afterwards, as prime minister, the pitch was explained in his preparedness to go quickly to a general election rather than ride out the JLP's mandate well into 2012.

The results of last week's general election, which the JLP lost by a landslide, have put Mr Holness' assertion to the test.

"It is apparent that the people of Jamaica still have concerns about the JLP, and we will reflect on that," he said.

That remark was a thinly veiled reference to public anger over the former administration's handling of the Christopher Coke extradition affair and other scandals that affected the JLP.

Compelling data

Mr Golding ultimately resigned because of the Coke issue, and Mr Holness' own popularity probably saved the JLP from a worse electoral drubbing. But the preliminary figures from last week's poll hint at the crisis facing Mr Holness' party.

Between the 2007 and 2011 elections, nearly 312,000, or 23 per cent more, voters were added to the eventual register of 1.64 million people. But last Thursday, the JLP won 6,437, or 1.5 per cent, fewer votes than in 2007. Its share of the popular vote slipped from 50 per cent to 45.6 per cent.

This does not necessarily mean that voters flocked to the People's National Party (PNP). The voter turnout last week, at 52.65 per cent, was down nine percentage points from 2007 and was the second lowest in 67 years of universal adult suffrage. Nonetheless, in absolute numbers, the PNP gained roughly 57,000 more votes than in 2007.

But as bad as the JLP may presume the numbers to be, and as seriously as Mr Holness should take them, the situation is not beyond rescue. The PNP has clearly not locked in the electorate.

Holness must assert authority

The real issue, therefore, is how Mr Holness proceeds with the rebuilding he promised. First, he must decide whether he wants the job of party leader itself in order to revamp the JLP, and not just merely as a route to the prime ministership.

Should he answer yes, Mr Holness has the starting point of credible numbers in Parliament and a policy platform on which both the JLP and the PNP are broadly agreed. If he effectively uses that forum to lead efforts to hold the Government to account, without being obtuse and obstreperous, he will gain public support.

His biggest challenge, however, will not initially come at Gordon House, but at Belmont Road, the JLP's headquarters. There is an old guard that was crossed by Mr Holness' ascendancy and who are likely to reassert themselves. He has to find a way to sideline this lot, as well as the young members who practise an old, tribal brand of politics. He also has to manage the parrying and poking of those similarly young and ambitious members searching for weaknesses in his armour.

If he is to survive and be of value, Mr Holness has to stamp his authority on the JLP without being a stifling influence.