Let the rebuilding begin

Anthony Myers, Contributor

THE DECEMBER 29, 2011 parliamentary general election is now history. Of the 63 seats contested by both major political parties, the People's National Party (PNP) won 42 to the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) 21. It is interesting to note that, of the three newly created constituencies, the PNP won St Catherine East Central and St James Central, the JLP winning St Catherine South Central. With a voters' list of 1,648,036 electors for the December 29 general election, the voter turnout based on the accepted ballots was a low 869,438 (52.75 per cent).

Of the five contested parliamentary general elections held in the month of December, the JLP won in 1944 and 1949 while the PNP took the 1976, 1997 and the 2011 contests. Although the JLP won the December 14, 1944 general election quite comfortably with a majority of ten seats (JLP 22, PNP 5 and Independents 5), that party only received 41.4 per cent of the accepted ballots, the PNP 23.5 per cent, Independents 30 per cent, the Jamaica Democratic Party 4.1 per cent and other parties 1 per cent. The December 1949 contest was quite an interesting one as the JLP only received 42.7 per cent of the accepted ballots to the PNP's 43.5 per cent. The JLP, however, won 17 seats to the PNP's 13 and Independents two - Sir Harold E. Allan, Portland Eastern and Stanley Albert Scott, St James South Eastern. So the PNP, in spite of losing the election by a margin of four seats, polled 203,048 votes to the JLP's 199,538, a majority of 3,510 votes for the PNP.

It is said that, as the end of the JLP tenure in office approached, the then leader of the JLP, William Alexander Bustamante declared that December was not a good month to hold elections. so he set the date for the election that should have been held in December 1954 for January 12, 1955. However, in spite of the JLP leader's change of month, his cousin, Norman Manley, after 17 years in the political wilderness (1938-1955) led the PNP to victory with an absolute majority of 4,856 votes (50.5 per cent) winning 18 of the 32 seats, the JLP winning the other 14.

Not surprised

In 1976, the then leader of the PNP, Michael Manley, won a resounding victory on the 15th of December and, on the 18th of December 1997, the PNP led by Percival James Patterson had the third-largest majority in the history of parliamentary elections in Jamaica (50-10). The largest majority was the PNP's victory on the 30th of March, 1993 (52-8) and the second largest in 1980 when the JLP won 51 seats to the PNP's nine. I think we should take note of the fact that in all five elections contested in the month of December, four were held between the period December 15 and December 20. It is only in the recent election that campaigning covered almost the entire month of December.

It is interesting to note that I had on a radio programme advised against a December 29 date. I was, therefore, not surprised that the JLP not only lost by my predicted margin of 17 seats (40-23) but lost two additional seats that not even the notable psephologist could have projected. After 42 years of using historical voting trends to correctly project election results, I am extremely pleased with having correctly projected 61 of the 63 seats.

Congratulations

The PNP under the leadership of Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller must be congratulated for a comprehensive and resounding victory. Of the 869,438 accepted ballots, the PNP polled 463,232 (53.3 per cent) to the JLP 405,234 (46.6 per cent), NDM 265 (0.03 per cent), Independents 232 (0.02 per cent) and other parties 475 (0.05 per cent). The PNP, therefore, had an absolute majority of 57,026 votes (53.3 per cent), the JLP trailing the PNP by 57,998 votes. This is quite a reversal when compared to the September 3, 2007 election results.

In closing, I say to the JLP, do not dismay, there is hope, as it was in October 1980 for the PNP, so it was your turn in December 2011. Start the rebuilding process in a spirit of unity, remembering that with Christ in the vessel you can smile at the storm. On the other hand, the ruling PNP must be quietly celebrating their good fortune of having a Christian leader who not only displays ability and character, but bears a constructive relation to the emergent forces of her era; forces much more easily defined by leisurely historians a generation later than by hurried practical men caught in the maelstrom which those forces create.

Anthony 'Tony' Myers is a statistician and political analyst.