What's at stake in local gov't polls

by Shalman Scott, Guest Columnist

A lot is at stake for the People's National Party (PNP) and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the upcoming local government elections on March 26.

In the last such elections on December 5, 2007, the JLP won eight parish councils plus the Kingston and St Andrew Corporation, while the PNP won four councils and the Portmore municipality.

The PNP, in light of the JLP's dominance, is politically uncomfortable and would want to change the balance of power for a seamless relationship between central government and local government.

Some analysts posit that a JLP-dominated local government system could prove obstructionist to a PNP-controlled central government and hurt, rather than assist, the process of governance.

Others hold a totally different view. They argue that in the interest of transparency, accountability and a buffer against potential abuse, a JLP-controlled local government system is desirable in advancing and protecting the interest of the taxpayers and others.

I believe the Opposition's role as watchdog of both our democracy and the day-to-day administration of the Government can be better served when there is a deepening of participation institutionally, within all layers of government.

It is argued that despite the best of intentions and Portia Simpson Miller's tough talk, endemic and systemic corruption will continue to pervade the political landscape, even as stout efforts and commitment for reform are being made.

History is replete with announcements of movement towards reform coinciding with massive cost overruns, poor accountability, procedural breaches, unlawful acts and abuse of authority in the management of public finances. But this happens also in parish councils, and thus reinforces the need for someone to watch the watchman!

Whichever party wins the local government elections will depend on the strategic use of money, messaging and mobilisation. For indeed, local issues and local personalities will play a more catalytic role than those national issues that dominated the last parliamentary election.

Consequently, the political dynamics in some local government divisions will see shifts, especially against the background of some bitter, internal party contests to choose standard-bearers. And one local government division can make a world of difference at this level.

Looking at some divisions

The previous majorities held by the JLP in Clarendon (16 JLP-6 PNP), St Mary (10 JLP-3 PNP), Portland (7 JLP-2 PNP), St Thomas (8 JLP-2 PNP), St James (13 JLP-4 PNP) have been huge. Clearly, the PNP strategists would know that this race requires serious work to change the party's fortunes, despite winning some JLP constituencies in last December's general election.

For example, in Hanover and Clarendon, despite the PNP's D.K. Duncan and Ian Hayles winning their seats with increased majorities in 2011, based on those results, the JLP won four of the seven parish council divisions. Can Duncan, a veteran tactician, reverse this trajectory in the upcoming parish council elections in Hanover?

And though there were wins for the PNP's Horace Dalley in North Clarendon and Richard Azan in North West Clarendon, and only a nail-biting victory by the JLP's Rudyard Spencer, the former health minister, in South East Clarendon, based on the December 29, 2011 results, it is now only a tie (11 PNP-11 JLP) projected for that parish council. Will the JLP halt the PNP march? Can Mike Henry make a difference for the JLP?

Prognosis on councils

The national picture, in the respective parishes, reflect the following state of political play:

Battleground: Clarendon, St James, Hanover, St Elizabeth.

Competitive: KSAC, St Mary, Trelawny.

Trending JLP: Portland and St Thomas.

Trending PNP: Westmoreland, Manchester, St Ann, St Catherine, Portmore municipality and the Portmore mayoralty.

Of the 40,198 votes cast in Portmore, the PNP received 22,851 (56.84 per cent) to the JLP's 17,347 (43.16 per cent), giving the PNP a popular majority of 5,504 in that municipality. The hard-working Keith Hinds, the current JLP mayor, must reverse this situation to effectively deal with the challenge of the architect of the Portmore municipality, the affable and articulate George Lee of the PNP.

Both Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and Opposition Leader Andrew Holness would want to burnish their political legitimacy, which is inextricably bound to the outcome of this month's local government contest.

A win for the PNP will consolidate the perception of the prime minister's popularity and clout, while the opposition leader needs a convincing showing to strengthen his hand, as a second huge loss could convey mass political resentment.

In this high-stakes race, the March 26 local government campaign is expected to be unusually intense compared to the hustings in previous years.

Shalman Scott is a political analyst. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.