Rounding the US election bend

By John Rapley

Only in America, the land which gave us the permanent campaign, can one speak of the final 100 days of an election campaign as being round the final bend. Even the home stretch, which will begin after the party conventions take place in a few weeks' time, is far longer than most countries' entire campaigns.

Despite the barrage of advertising in US media, the basic outlines of the contest haven't changed much since early this year. The House of Representatives will remain in Republican hands, and the Senate, while leaning Democratic, could yet tilt to the GOP.

The principal development in recent weeks has been that the presidential contest, while still on a knife-edge, has started leaning in favour of the Democratic incumbent, Barack Obama. The contest could still go either way, and the president is far from clear. Nonetheless, recent national polls, the longer-term trends, and the state-by-state breakdown in the vote, suggest a steady lead that the Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, will struggle to erode.

At first glance, this is puzzling. The public's job description for the president has, as one of its key elements, delivering a good economy. Regardless that President Obama inherited an economy in distress, he takes the fall for its remaining bad. Yes, modest growth has returned, and jobs are being created. But the unemployment rate remains high, and it is abundantly clear that some Americans are doing better than others.

ROMNEY'S RICH ITCH

Mitt Romney, the successful executive campaigning on his credentials - reviving moribund businesses - should be cruising to victory. He isn't. Part of his difficulty is that Romney is seen as a rich man far removed from the woes of ordinary people.

Unlike other countries, there is little negative stigma attached to becoming rich in America. On the contrary, Americans love a success story. Wealth alone shouldn't hurt Romney.

His problem is that he's seen as being far too clubby with the plutocrats who created this economic mess. His refusal to follow his father's footsteps when he campaigned for public office, and release more than a decade of tax returns, is raising suspicions that he is hiding money in offshore accounts. It's one thing to grow rich in America. It's another to bend the rules doing so.

The Obama campaign has exploited this weakness ruthlessly, and effectively, with a series of negative ads hinting, strongly, that Romney's an insensitive tax dodger. Admittedly, it's a bit rich for Obama to put himself on the side of the little man since he, too, filled his administration with the very folk who helped create this economic mess. Nonetheless, the Democratic base eats up the attacks as red meat.

PICKED UP SUPPORT

Meanwhile, Republican boorish-ness during their primaries alienated female voters, who now favour Obama by a large, and apparently firm, edge. While Romney has picked up support from disaffected Democrats, and especially within the white working class, his gains have not proven so large. Along with African-American voters who, despite their reservations, remain solidly pro-Obama, the president holds an edge.

Of course, in the US's peculiar electoral system, it is the state-by-state vote breakdown which matters. States are allocated votes in the Electoral College which, ultimately, selects the president. Most states give all the votes to the winner of the state poll, no matter how narrow the margin of victory. And part of Romney's handicap is that the states worst affected by the recession are not swing states. In fact, on average, swing states are not doing as badly as the country as a whole.

In consequence, the weak economy won't hurt Obama as much as expected. Meanwhile, his apparent edge among independent voters could give him enough of a margin to win the election, even if his supporters back him with little enthusiasm.

If they are to change the dynamics of this campaign, the Republicans will probably need a good convention. And they'll have to figure out what to do about those tax returns, because the GOP is losing that argument.

John Rapley is a research associate at the International Growth Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.