China rising

By John Rapley

As the economies of the West trudge along in their ill humour, sometimes falling back into recession, sometimes skirting it, China continues to rise and rise. Its red-hot engine has cooled of late, which is a concern for global policymakers: if China can't make up for weaker Western demand, who will?

But China itself has a different set of concerns. Most any other country would delight in calling an industrial growth rate in the high single-digits slow. China's challenge is both to manage the domestic policy challenges that result from rapid growth and to protect its overseas interests.

Over the last couple of decades, those interests have multiplied rapidly. Because the Chinese economy under Mao Zedong gazed at its own navel, China was able to largely retreat from world affairs. Its foreign engagements could thus remain benign, like the occasional aid programme. Since economic reform took hold in the 1980s, though, China has moved back on to the world stage, and indeed closer to the centre of the world.

The country will increasingly rival the US for its economic might. Moreover, its resource-intensive expansion has given it, if anything, more overseas interests. Whereas the US has historically depended on imported oil for its energy needs, technological change has enabled the American economy to reduce its foreign dependence. China is moving in the opposite direction.

MILITARY MODERNISATION

When its economy depends on foreign supplies, a country must put itself in a position to defend access to those supplies. Reflecting this, China has been embarking on an aggressive programme of military modernisation. Over the first decade of this century, its military expenditure increased nearly tenfold.

A central plank of this has been to build a navy that can at least compete in a league with the Americans. At the moment, the US is the only country that has the capacity to engage in large-scale warfare anywhere on the planet. That results in no small measure from its naval supremacy. China is far from challenging that supremacy. But it is racing to narrow the gap.

American foreign-policy theorists in the 'realist' camp argue that China will slowly push the US out of Asia, forcing its neighbours into a docile stance. The Obama administration takes this seriously enough that as the US withdraws from Iraq and Afghanistan, it is exploiting its alliance with Australia to boost its presence there.

Within China, there are signs that the military is growing more assertive in domestic politics. As the Chinese Communist Party grapples with its weakening hold over society, all while it battles internal corruption, some generals are reportedly seeking more say. This may, or may not, be a bad thing. Because of its professionalism, the Chinese military could prod the regime towards needed domestic reform. But it is always a concern when one sees more brass in the corridors of power.

LIMITED BY CHALLENGES

There are many who criticise the realists for being too strident. China, they maintain, is merely asserting legitimate interests in its backyard. Moreover, it is a long way from rivalling American military mobility. Finally, China's internal challenges will continue to limit the leadership's foreign ventures, putting brakes on how quickly China will assert itself in the world.

Nonetheless, it is incontestable that China will begin to match its economic presence with a military one. It has to: that is the way states operate. Meanwhile, its foreign policy, which has eschewed alliances and focused on bilateral deals, may need to change in favour of greater multilateralism. And though it will probably do it subtly, at least at first, it will almost certainly become more aggressive in its dealings over time.

No country can emerge in the world economically to the degree China is without following, at some point, militarily. This change will be gradual, but it will come. Understanding that will be important for all states with extensive ties with the middle kingdom.

John Rapley is a world-affairs expert. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.