Obama - transformative president in a transforming country?

IF THE United States of America was still a white man's land, Mitt Romney would be its president.

According to the polls on Tuesday night, Barack Obama lost the white vote. He lost white men big time. But he piled up such big margins among Hispanics, African Americans and ethnic minorities, and retained an edge among women and young voters, that he was able to eke out a narrow victory against the odds.

Republican strategists are already mulling over the implications. Having retained their hold on the House of Representatives, diehard conservatives still talk a tough game. But the more reflective types in the party can see the writing on the wall. For now, history is against the Republican Party.

In a country that is growing ever less white, the party's hold on its traditional base will no longer sustain it. In a country that is growing less religious, its lock on evangelical conservatives will not put it back in the White House. And in a country in which women have emerged as a powerful constituency with distinct concerns, appeals to tradition will no longer be safe vote winners.

One is tempted, as well, to read into Tuesday's result a victory of people over money. Mitt Romney staked his campaign on his ability to mend the economy. But a significant share of voters reported that they wanted a president with whom they could identify and who shared their concerns. With Mitt Romney seen as a distant patrician, Barack Obama won that chunk of the public handily. And while billionaires bought hundreds of millions of dollars in advertisements for Mr Romney, the Democrats relied on an army of true believers to turn out their supporters.

However, tempted as one might be to see this as a triumph for democracy, one shouldn't push the people-over-pocketbooks analysis too far. After all, President Obama is no mean fund-raiser, and he was able to amass a huge war chest to fend off his wealthy opponents. Nonetheless, the fact that Wall Street went so decisively into the Republican camp in this election may mean that a second Obama presidency will feel itself less beholden to the nation's plutocrats than it did in its first term.

For Mr Obama, the election results guarantee that his signature achievement, Obamacare, will survive. After its full implementation in two years, America will next go to the polls with millions of Americans deriving direct benefits from the legislation. The threat of repeal will quickly lose appeal, cementing the Obama presidency's place in history. With a Democratic Senate ready to approve his appointments, Mr Obama may also get to shape the Supreme Court for a generation, with several resignations possible during his next term.

And in foreign policy, he will enjoy free rein to pursue his agenda of redefining America's place in the world. With Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, having blown his bet on a Romney presidency, Mr Obama may even be in a position to tackle the Middle East peace process, a trap into which many previous presidents have fallen.

little time for celebration

Nonetheless, there will be little time to celebrate. Mr Obama may fulfil his dream of being a transformative president. But first, he faces the more prosaic challenge of keeping the lights on.

In the coming weeks, his showdown with Congressional Republicans will resume, as the fiscal cliff approaches. Unless a new budget deal is agreed in the coming weeks, sharp tax rises and spending cuts will kick in at year end. Neither party wants to compromise. The House leadership says it will not agree to a new deal which includes tax increase on the rich. The president says he will not agree a deal without them.

For the moment, momentum seems to favour the president. If the country goes over the fiscal cliff, a short-term recession will result. However, bond markets might actually approve that America thereby tackles its deficit problems. And in the meantime, Democrats could propose a new deal which reduces taxes on all but the richest Americans, daring Republicans to refuse it.

Short-term pain for long-term gain. But the pain would be dire, and many Americans will not appreciate too dogmatic an approach. Mr Obama's first test of statesmanship will come with this impending issue. How he approaches the challenge may well define his second term, and possibly his entire presidency.

John Rapley is a foreign affairs analyst. Send comments to columns@gleanerjm.com or rapley.john@gmail.com.