Political challenge in a season of discontent

Christopher Tufton, Contributor

Even with the Jamaica 50 anniversary celebrations and Usain Bolt and our Olympic team's impressive performance in London, most Jamaicans are likely to be happy to see the back of 2012. On New Year's Day 2013, many are likely to reflect on the challenges, rather than the opportunities, of the past year, while hoping that the new dawn will offer better economic prospects.

The average Jamaican will have little to cheer about this Christmas, as jobs and economic opportunities were scarce during the year, including the lead-up to the holiday season. Even my PNP activist friends are admitting that the Jamaica Emergency Employment Programme (JEEP), as a short-term fix for job creation, was more hype than substance and has resulted in only a marginal improvement in job prospects for those who are living on the margins of society. For the most part, existing and already-planned programmes were branded JEEP to satisfy an election promise, rather than allocating new resources for additional job creation.

In some instances, those fortunate enough to have benefited from a JEEP-branded job would be less than satisfied with the time it has taken for them to get paid. Even so, the promise of JEEP certainly helped to bring the governing party to power, and since then has allowed the Government to claim credit for delivering an election promise of providing short-term jobs. JEEP may not have offered a tangible solution to job creation, but it certainly offered a rallying cry for the ruling party.

HIGHER PRICES

This holiday season is likely to see higher prices in the stores, as the United States dollar is more expensive to purchase than a year before, so raw material and finished products that are imported for resale will have to reflect these costs. Businesses are likely to see little, if any increase, in demand for goods and services as consumers respond to the uncertainty of job prospects and economic policies that may accompany the dawn of 2013. In fact, the average entrepreneur will tell you that business is down 10-20 per cent year-on-year.

With a contraction in critical economic areas like construction, any multiplier impact on local communities is only likely to come from another JEEP-style Christmas clean-up work, administered through what may be left of the Constituency Development Fund and parish councils. This will hardly be enough, however, and given the Government's tight financial situation and delicate IMF talks, the politics of patronage is likely to be severely hampered in the year to come, if for no other reason than the fact that Government has very little to hand out.

The Jamaican Government, too, should be happy to see the end of 2012, while hoping for better prospects for 2013. The Government cannot be satisfied with its first year in office.

Based on its vibrant and successful election campaign, the PNP administration should by now be adjusted to the realities of the country's economic prospects and would begin to experience the negative feedback from their constituents, caused by the economic hardships they are facing, and the seeming lack of practical solutions being put forward to solve the problems in communities.

The hopes of many who supported the Government appear to be waning, as many feel their expectations are not being met and the PNP's re-entry into office has so far been characterised as an anticlimax. The now-ruling party did what it felt it had to, during the election campaign, generating hope and raising expectations, even though it must have known that delivering on its promises would be difficult. This is the nature of our competitive politics. We are consistent in overpromising and underdelivering.

As we approach 2013, the Government still appears to be coming to terms with how it will tell the Jamaican people that it will have to take a more challenging approach to addressing the issues related to economic development.

POLITICAL WILL NEEDED

At the end of 2012, the most significant challenge facing the Government appears to be the political will to take the decisions that are required to cauterise Jamaica's economic crisis and restore the country to a path of recovery. This is manifested in the lack of an International Monetary Fund agreement, but more important, in the seeming reluctance to address issues in the public-sector reform.

Today's uncertainties are not so much about technical competence, as it is about political courage to do what needs to be done. This is the collective responsibility of the Government, not any particular minister or ministry.

Next year, the Government will have to depend on private sector-driven investments to boost economic recovery and create jobs. However, the delays in getting approvals to start a business continue to be a major disincentive for entrepreneurial activity. Transaction time and costs in doing business need to be reduced, and Government has to drive that process through public-sector reform.

NO ROOM TO MANOEUVRE

The challenge the Government faces this time, as opposed to other times in our history, is the limited options to manoeuvre to move forward. With a debt-to-GDP ratio of almost 140 per cent and revenue intake less than expected, the country will grind to a halt if much-needed reforms don't take place. The Government must adjust its habits to survive on what it earns, rather than borrowed money.

Doing the right thing may cause pain and have negative political consequences, but it is also true that this will save the country from economic collapse. Is the Government prepared to go for the greater good, or are they watching the clock to the next election and still searching for a quick fix? But with our high-debt, no-growth scenario, there appears no quick fix this time around.

The Opposition, having been in Government only a year ago, fully understands the tough decisions ahead and is likely to time its intervention for political advantage. The Opposition must strike a delicate balance in its quest for political advantage, as the cynical electorate, and even more cynical media, are already convinced that all politicians are the cause of the country's debt and poverty.

Increasingly, no distinction is made when issues of corruption, waste and mismanagement arise. It's a dilemma which the Opposition must overcome. The answer may not reside always in seeking political advantage in every public position taken.

Political advantage should not always be assessed in partisan terms but, rather, in improving the individual and collective economy. Right now, the citizenry seem to want constructive, solution-oriented engagement. The Government and the Opposition stand to gain from advancing a plan for the country.

So as the people bid 2012 farewell with a sigh of relief, 2013 is already threatening to be another tough year. With an IMF agreement pending and the added burden of achieving debt reduction and economic growth, there is need for a bold and decisive step by the Government, which must lead the charge.

In this season of discontent, political advantage will come to whoever advances practical, workable solutions to the challenges the people face.

Dr Chris Tufton is a senator, opposition spokesman on foreign affairs and trade, and investments, and co-executive director of CaPRI. The views in this column do not necessarily represent those of the above-mentioned entities. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and cctufton@yahoo.com.