Korea's Krazy Kim?

By John Rapley

Once again, Pyongyang is rattling its sabres and threatening war. This is nothing new for a regime with a long history of throwing tantrums until it gets what it wants.

The concern this time around is that nobody is quite sure what the hermit kingdom wants. North Korea frequently uses provocation either to shore up the regime's domestic base, or to secure diplomatic concessions from its enemies, or both. Yet this time, it seems to be taking unusually belligerent steps whose motives, however, are unclear.

Significantly, by closing the border industrial zone to South Koreans and threatening to rain missiles down on America, Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un raised the tension to worrying levels. Adding to the anxiety was a recent public statement by China, North Korea's remaining ally, calling for the rhetoric to be toned down. That Beijing would express its frustration so openly would seem to suggest that it, too, is losing a grip on its neighbour.

But are the North Koreans serious? Because the regime is so opaque, it is very difficult to engage in much more than speculation about its intentions. At times like this, specialists on the country conclude that there may be some jostling going on within the country's leadership factions, and that Kim is asserting himself.

You just have to look at Kim to realise that he's the type of fellow who probably needs an army to get himself taken seriously. The small fat round-faced guy might not actually have it in him to carry through with a fight.

FULL OF HOT AIR

Jocularity aside, though, it is clear that North Korea's pledges to nuke the US are just hyperbole. The country doesn't have a missile that could reach its enemy's west coast, and even if it did, it would be a stretch to imagine it could fix a nuclear warhead.

No, the greater danger lies closer to home. South Korea's capital, Seoul, is a mere 35 miles from the border, where thousands of pieces of artillery are lined up with the city in their sights. Meanwhile, more than 20,000 US troops are stationed in South Korea, and they would get drawn into even a localised confrontation.

Besides, when tensions are high, there is always the risk of a misstep. Perhaps an eager general might respond a bit too enthusiastically to a provocation, leading to an escalating spiral of violence. Even if the latest manoeuvring on the Korean Peninsula turns out to be another tempest in a teapot, it's important to put the ongoing conflict into its regional context.

It is perhaps that which is so worrying. East Asia has seen relations among several countries worsen in recent years. Some analysts trace this to the jostling for position between an ascendant China, and a declining US-Japan axis, and the list of neighbours which feel threatened by an increasingly assertive China is long.

CHINA-JAPAN TENSIONS

But at the moment, the most pointed conflict is between China and Japan. Its epicentre lies in some contested islands in the East China Sea. Japan and China both claim them, and the discovery of oil in their waters has heightened the territorial stakes.

With Japan now under a more hardline nationalist government, and the Chinese leadership looking to expand its country's global stance, tensions are rising.

One can, therefore, say, with some degree of confidence, that a future conflict in East Asia is growing in likelihood. It may not be between the two Koreas, however, let alone between North Korea and the US. But the tense backdrop could aggravate decision-making on this particular battlefield.

Washington, itself grappling with cuts to its defence budget, will thus tread gingerly. For all we know, Kim may be taking advantage of this breathing room to do some skilful manoeuvring. But whether he turns out to be a Machiavellian genius, or an insecure buffoon, that chapter in the story is yet to play out.

John Rapley, a political economist at the University of Cambridge, is currently on a visiting professorship at Queen's University in Canada. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and jr603@cam.ac.uk.