Everybody can be a sports expert

By Orville Higgins

I don't know about you, but for the longest while, I have been quietly amused at the business of sports 'experts' and 'analysts'. Prior to every big sporting event, be it the NBA final, or the Olympics, every self-respecting media house with sports as part of its programming will roll out these experts to tell the rest of us mortals what is likely to happen.

They will look and sound sufficiently smug and self-important, and they trot out every conceivable fact there is about the teams or persons involved, to dazzle the rest of us as to how bright and informed they really are. When they predict what is about to unfold, you almost feel like you could go 'put you pot pon fire' on the result.

Come game time, quite often these experts are horribly wrong, with the results being completely different from what we were told they would be. The interesting thing is that many of them don't even have the decency afterwards to tell us that they made a mess of the predictions. After what they predicted didn't happen, they are usually quick to tell us all the little variables that prevented them from getting it right, variables which quite often were not mentioned in the lead-up to the event itself!

On the occasions when these analysts 'buck up' and get the results right, they beam from ear to ear, push out their chests with the 'I-told-you-so' pride, and behave as if they have solved the problem of global warming.

The funny thing is that many regular Joes had predicted the exact same thing and they would cost these media houses half the price!

NBA FINALS

I remember the NBA final last year. Several experts, both local and foreign, were saying how Gregg Popovich, coach of the San Antonio Spurs, was going to be too good for Erik Spoelstra's Miami. I couldn't understand what they were saying. Miami had the best record in the regular season, including a record run of winning 27 consecutive games. Miami were defending champions, and they had the added bonus of LeBron James, who just happens to be the best all-round player in the game.

When the Spurs went up 3-2, the experts made it appear that it was a done deal. Miami won the series 4-3 and these experts were all left looking sheepish. I predicted the series right and I am no expert, and it reinforced my belief that the experts were merely other people with an opinion.

But I don't even have to go that far back. In the World Championships under way in Russia, every single expert under the sun told us that Kirani James would either get the gold or silver in the men's 400 metres final. I was of the same belief. Indeed, the whole world was of the same belief. If anybody had said Kirani wouldn't have medalled, these experts would have laughed you to scorn.

What happened? Kirani formed the fool and finished seventh, which means that the experts were just as horrible in their predictions as the rest of us. After the race, these same experts are now 'explaining' and 'understanding' why he ran so badly! Please! Am I the only one who sees the funny side in these things?

Now, don't get me wrong, I am prepared to acquiesce to some experts. Let's say someone came in as a firearm expert. He may well know everything there is to know about guns, their make, description, and their capabilities, etc. I'll work with him, because guns don't have a mind of their own and are likely to behave the same way every time.

So any two experts will sound virtually the same way on that particular subject. I'm even prepared to work with these sports experts when I need the facts about a sports person or event which has already taken place.

When these experts start predicting what will happen down the road, however, in a contest where human beings are involved, they now start to play God, and I, therefore, take what they say with a grain of salt and a healthy dose of scepticism.

My long association with sports has taught me that if you are a reasonable follower of any sport, and remain fairly up to date, usually the experts are no better than you are at explaining what's happening or is likely to happen.

Orville Higgins is a sports journalist and talk-show host. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.