Assessing the JLP leadership challenge

By Devon Dick

On Sunday, November 10, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) delegates will determine who leads the party. Andrew Holness, the incumbent JLP leader, faces a challenge from one of his deputies, Audley Shaw.

It appears that labelling Holness as one not having a 'winnability factor' is an exaggeration. Earlier this year, the JLP, under the leadership of Holness, won a by-election in a local government election for the Cassia Park seat. This feat should not be overlooked because, although the JLP won that division in the 2011 general election, it lost the division in the 2012 local government elections.

Additionally, while the governing People's National Party (PNP) increased the number of persons voting in its favour in the by-election over the number of votes it got in 2012, the JLP had a bigger increase. It seems that the base of the party was mobilised and energised, and if it is indicative of a wider base, then it augured well for the JLP.

Another point highlighted only by Dr Ken Baugh, former chairman of the JLP, was that many opinion polls showed Holness as the best-performing Cabinet minister. It is a bit surprising that 'Team JLP' did not use this argument as part of its campaign.

DISSERVICE TO SHAW

On the other hand, to pigeonhole Shaw as 'ray ray' is to do him a disservice. He is not only a good campaigner and discoverer of scandals, but capable of serious economic analysis. It is surprising that he did not give an analysis of what was going to be the strategy of the JLP concerning an International Monetary Fund (IMF) deal which had irretrievably broken down. The paradox was that, after numerous periods of consecutive negative growth, there were periods of economic growth when there was no IMF deal. This phenomenon was not exploited by Shaw.

It seems Shaw outsmarted Holness in the campaign strategy. Shaw owned the 'ray, ray' label and made it work for him. Also, he nullified the argument that the monied class was supporting him by showing that it takes cash to care. It is commendable when a person can use a criticism to his or her benefit. Additionally, Shaw portrayed Holness as not meeting with losing candidates and not releasing the document about the review of the party's electoral defeats. However, Shaw's major misstep was developing five pillars, using a framework which was not dissimilar to Holness'.

Nevertheless, Shaw has a difficult task. In Jamaican politics, the challenger for party leadership has never won. Additionally, incumbency has the benefit of the party machinery and the support of the status quo.

NARRATIVE COULD CHANGE

Should Shaw win, the narrative of the JLP election strategy would change dramatically. It was claimed that it was 'young people time' and to change Holness for Shaw, who is 20 years his senior, is to change a central beam of the party's vision. It would appear that some in the JLP, having given Holness basket to carry water, now consider him expendable and are throwing him out with the bathwater. In fact, Don Anderson polls showed a wide gap between the JLP and PNP, in favour of the latter under the leadership of Bruce Golding, and Holness closed that gap and there was a time when it was believed he had overtaken the PNP.

Some changes will be coming if Holness wins. Senator Christopher Tufton is likely to lose his seat in the Senate over his remark that Holness does not like bright people around him. Chances are we will have a new spokesperson on education and other new faces.

If Shaw wins, then, perhaps, Mike Henry would return to the Shadow Cabinet, Tufton will get the portfolio of finance and planning, and Daryl Vaz, the new general secretary, because Dr Horace Chang called the election for Holness.

The bigger challenge is to unite the party around core values and programmes after the election, then help Jamaica overcome her serious social and economic difficulties.

Rev Devon Dick is pastor of the Boulevard Baptist Church in St Andrew. He is author of 'The Cross and the Machete', and 'Rebellion to Riot'. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.