EDITORIAL - What's to be made of Mr Shaw's return?

AUDLEY SHAW'S return to the Opposition's front bench is, politically, potentially good for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and its leader, Andrew Holness.

What it means for rational economic policy in Jamaica remains uncertain. Much, though, unless things have changed, may depend on the price Mr Holness has paid, or is willing to pay, for his political gains. Or, is it political peace?

Mr Shaw, it is recalled, last year challenged Mr Holness for the leadership of the JLP and lost. He, nonetheless, received a respectable 43 per cent of the votes of delegates.

The big surprise in the aftermath of the election was how Mr Shaw proceeded to play his hand. He and a key supporter, Mr Edmund Bartlett, declined positions in Mr Holness' shadow cabinet. Mr Bartlett didn't want to be spokesman on foreign affairs and Mr Shaw felt that the party leader was, unwarrantedly, ostracising another of his supporters, Dr Christopher Tufton.

These, though, were not back-room negotiations. For, within minutes of private meetings with Mr Holness, both men made public letters to him outlining the purported concerns, leaving the impression of an attempt to dictate to the JLP leader, usurping his mandate.

If Mr Shaw's return to the position in which he has served for well over a decade, including four years as the actual minister, signals a genuine burying of the hatchet and his acceptance of Mr Holness' leadership, that is good for the JLP. For there is little doubt that Mr Shaw has good political skills. He communicates in an easy, if often rumbustious style, that makes him an asset on the hustings.

And two years into the life of the People's National Party (PNP), the JLP will have begun to look towards a another general election - preferably as a whole rather than in factions. And that, ultimately, is good for Jamaica's democracy.

There, is however, a larger issue, beyond electoral politics: the matter of how the JLP would manage the economy if it forms the government.

The current administration has an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under which it has been forced to pursue a programme of economic austerity. The underlying aim is to contain the country's bloated debt, which, relative to national output of goods and services, is among the world's worst.

The administration has demonstrated admirable discipline, so far, in the management of the fiscal accounts, which requires it to return a primary surplus of 7.5 per cent of GDP. Mr Shaw, however, has been mostly snide in his observations about the Government's economic management.

no credible offerings

He and others have demanded economic stimulus from the Government without credible offerings of how this is to be funded, or analyses of the likely impact of, we suppose, deficit spending on the economic programme.

At the same time, Mr Shaw often highlights the fact that, during his ministerial stint, he lowered interest rates and maintained relative currency stability, in contrast to the depreciation of the Jamaican dollar.

What is not adequately addressed in the discourse is criticism that he maintained an over-valued currency and the fact that, under his stewardship, an agreement with the IMF went awry, leading to withholding of loans and aid from international partners. It is important, therefore, that Mr Shaw quickly outlines his broad economic policy, including the relationship he expects to have with the IMF, if the JLP returns to government.

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