Orville's overt obfuscation

Guest columnist, Dr Orville Taylor, has apparently taken on the new role of political analyst in his piece in The Sunday Gleaner of April 10, regarding the by-election in South West St Catherine. But it is a mantle that requires facts, research, a sound evaluation of figures, and more than a little knowledge of the history of Jamaica's constituencies before it can be merited and worn with pride.

His conclusion that Everald Warmington's poll - which increased to 5,908 (65 per cent) in the final count - and when placed against his 2007 poll of 10,488 (58.7 per cent), was some kind of "wake-up call" for the MP lacks accuracy, judgement and very elementary knowledge of the by-election vs general election trend over the years. Since Dr Taylor is aware that, traditionally, by-elections attract a much lower voter turnout, it is rather surprising that he is unaware that the situation is compounded when the contest lacks a candidate from one of the two major political parties. For while the average general election turnout since adult suffrage has averaged in the high 60s, the average turnout in all by-elections has been only 47 per cent, and this goes down to anywhere from 10 to 20 per cent less when any of the by-elections are boycotted by either party.

Therefore, to have had a voter turnout of 9,149 (24.6 per cent) in a constituency with some 37,151 eligible voters (up by 6,023 from 2007), with Warmington against no formal PNP candidate and only a quartet of political minnows, is really creditable in an area that is not a garrison, and is, indeed, the tradition in recent times, especially when the seat is perceived to be strong for one side. Also, Warmington's personal poll, which was more than 50 per cent of his 2007 poll, posted a victory margin of 65 per cent compared to 58.7 per cent in '07. This comparison can be made, considering that Carlos Waul's grand poll of 2,959 (32 per cent) in the final count was really a PNP poll in disguise.

politically brittle

The performance of Waul, which clearly impressed Dr Taylor, was only achieved through the very obvious on-the-ground organisation of visible PNP workers, otherwise Waul would have ended up as politically brittle as wallpaper, polling perhaps 59 of that total, as independents usually do. This is only a little better than the 1,080 they mustered for Devon Evans in North East St Ann last year. But, essentially, what is quite revealing is that with all the effort to embarrass Warmington, the PNP could only manage about 2,900 votes out of an electorate of more than 37,000 voters.

So, on the contrary, Doc, this was actually a positive result for both Warmington and the JLP, not impressive by any means, but very much in tandem with tradition and the prevailing conditions as they relate to the area. Consequently, that "wake-up call" will have far more relativity to Warmington's opponents and detractors, facing the grim reality that his tenure is likely to be sustained far longer than their hearts' desire.

The comparison made with this result and Daryl Vaz's victories in West Portland was the most ridiculous of all. Trying to compare one by-election result which featured candidates of both major parties, against another with only one of those candidates, is as futile as comparing oranges with okras. That's hardly a tailor-made comparison! The more comparable results to South West St Catherine would be South St Catherine in 1994, which had no JLP candidate and brought the PNP's Fitz Jackson into the House with an 18 per cent turnout (the second lowest in a by-election); North West Clarendon in 2009 sans a PNP challenger which returned the JLP's Michael Stern with a 26.3 per cent turnout; and North East St Ann in 2010 with no official PNP candidate against the JLP's Shahine Robinson, who was re-elected with a 15.4 per cent turnout (now the lowest ever in a by-election) and who became the second person to be twice elected to the House through by-elections and in the same constituency.

Dr Taylor's assertion that Warmington should be worried that 75 per cent of potential voters did not turn out is as laughable as it is baseless, given the general apathy to politics nationally and the fact that South West St Catherine was never quite large on voter turnout. Historically, it has an average voter turnout of 68 per cent since 1976, has had less than 60 per cent turnout in the last two general elections when the national turnout was just above 60 per cent. It is an area which has not always gone with the national tide and has bucked the national result on at least five occasions.

In any case, South West St Catherine is not just "a Labourite constituency right now". It has actually been a JLP area for about 60 per cent of the period since 1944, and right now it is probably more a Warmington constituency. Indeed, for the next election, not even the realignment of his boundaries and the yielding of territory towards the creation of one of the new seats in the parish will significantly affect his margin. Except for the Ruddy Lawson years (1976-80 and 1989-97), the only other PNP representative there was Jennifer Edwards (1997-2002) who, incidentally as a first-termer who became a one-termer, could hardly be viewed as one who was 'entrenched' in the seat. All else have been JLP representation, with mostly Warmington and the Golding family, the latter comprising of Tacius and sons, Bruce and Anthony, whose accumulated service in the area exceeded 32 years. In 16 national contests (including the 1961 referendum), the JLP had 12 victories to the PNP's 4.

Unfortunately, the popularity and political influence of Warmington in the seat are being overshadowed by his bad public behaviour and clearly belie the underestimation of people like Dr Taylor who erroneously believes that "only a diehard core is backing him". Warmington's support is as broad as his political back throughout all five divisions of the constituency and his domination in the area is beginning to resemble Tacius Golding's, but with far more attitude.

Yes, Warmington is crude, but at least he speaks his mind, which is not a trait of most Jamaican politicians. In fact, it is the view of many that Parliament would be far too dull without a few Warmingtons, and he just happens to be one of those currently in the spotlight, extending from an extremely long line of atrocious elected individuals on both sides of the political fence, going all the way back to the '40s. This, of course, is no excuse for disgusting behaviour.

And yes, Doc, I have to agree that Warmington sounded just as bad in Old Harbour Bay about those hurricane-relief cheques as A.J. Nicholson sounded in North East St Elizabeth on the 2007 election trail, declaring that whoever expected benefits from his PNP government would "haffi vote fi Kern!"

However, what is as equally shameful as Warmington's behaviour is the political cowardice being displayed by the PNP in not contesting these by-elections, and which attract no criticism from media practitioners like Dr Taylor. It is understandable if the objective is to avoid the thrashing as meted out in the first two in West Portland and North East St Catherine. Or perhaps the folks in the media are becoming more cognisant that in spite of the PNP's overexposure and grandstanding to appear relevant, they are still unable to shake the perception of disunity, disorganisation, lacking in ideas and leadership material, and still offering little or nothing as a viable alternative.

But for the PNP to be resorting to hiding behind independent and third-party candidates in by-elections is truly a sad state to which this once proud party has sunk. And what will happen when or if West Hanover and South Central St Catherine come up for by-elections? Will they just surrender them to the JLP and move down to 26 seats, or try to find some excuse to save face and re-enter the election hustings?

The reprisal against Warmington in not featuring both his nomination day and election day activities, or even the election result by a media house like The Gleaner, was unbelievable. Was the task that difficult to take the higher road?

diet of other inaccuracies

Nevertheless, in-between his innuendoes and other terse remarks, Dr Taylor did manage to provide us with a diet of other inaccuracies and a few laughs - such as the MGPPP's Christopher Irons who "split the Rasta vote," whatever the hell that is! In terms of his 2007 result, Warmington neither polled the most votes, nor had the highest margin, as was stated. His margin was the fourth-largest among the successful JLP candidates (behind Golding, Grange and Henry) and his poll was second only to Shahine Robinson's 11,632 in North East St. Ann.

There is nowhere in the political records where Carlos Waul was ever an elected PNP councillor. All they show is Waul as a defeated PNP candidate in the Church Pen division in the 1998 parish council election.

Finally, in his yearn to relegate the MP to the devil's lair, Dr Taylor would be interested to learn that Everald Warmington has already been "to hell and back", an unforgettable experience of being shot on September 16, 1980 during his first campaign in the constituency. So, Doc, any other fond sentiments for the member of parliament that you would like to share with us?

Troy Caine is a political historian. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and trodencorp@gmail.com.