Captain Bruce's sticky wicket

Ian Boyne, Contributor

It has not been one of those awful weeks to which Bruce Golding and his Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) administration have now become accustomed. At the end of the week, he had been getting much positive press for his Cabinet reshuffle and much delight expressed about the new postings for Delroy Chuck and Chris Tufton; for the return of Clive Mullings - and for the back of Dorothy Lightbourne.

And he had a sweetener not of his own making: The loud, cantankerous and dramatic departure of long-time Comrade Sharon Hay-Webster from the People's National Party (PNP), with even a veiled threat to her party that she could cross the parliamentary floor.

Near the end of the week, the PNP, never to be underestimated strategically, staged their press conference to deliver their formal assessment of the Manatt commission of enquiry. They produced a highly reasoned, irenic and refreshingly sober document, but the majority of Jamaicans having already dismissed that George report, have moved on. And the Gleaner/Bill Johnson poll had already announced 'No Manatt bounce' for the PNP two Thursdays ago, stating that "a sizeable 34 per cent of the persons sampled said they were less likely to vote as the Manatt-Dudus affair has impacted the way they feel about politics in general in Jamaica". Only 22 per cent said they were more likely to vote PNP as a result of the Manatt issue. Hence, the PNP's intelligence, which kept them off the streets, despite their threats, was bang on target.

But Bruce Golding has absolutely no reason for complacency and, in fact, if I were he, I would be most careful and extra sensitive to public sentiments from now on, because he has no room for failure. He dubbed himself the captain last week; some would say having lost his 'Driva's' licence, while others would say he is, indeed, a captain - of a sinking ship. Most say he is a captain steering us in the wrong direction.

According to the Gleaner/Bill Johnson polls of last week, as much as 68 per cent of Jamaicans believe he is taking the country in the wrong direction. That has gone down from 82 per cent last year, but it is still nothing for Golding to take comfort from. Only 14 per cent of Jamaicans feel the country is headed in the right direction. The CVM/Don Anderson polls released last week showed that 28 per cent felt the Government's performance was "very poor" and 24 per cent rated it as "poor", showing that 52 per cent feel that this Government's performance has been poor. Only 11 per cent felt the Government's performance was good.

In a news story, 'Life getting harder - most Jamaicans', The Gleaner reported on Wednesday that its Bill Johnson-conducted polls found that "just over six out of every 10 Jamaicans experienced a slide in their economic situation last year." Some 37 per cent say their condition got "much worse" over the last year, while 25 per cent say it was a "little worse".

reality check

And as though to give Captain Bruce a reality check, The Gleaner on Thursday had a sub-headline which proclaims, "Portia's party better economy manager, say most Jamaicans'; which must be ironic to those following economic debates in Jamaica since the 1960s as the JLP had been seen as the party of management, while the PNP had been projected as a party of social welfare. The management-mismanagement debate heightened in the 1970s-1980s, but in all that time the JLP marketed itself and was branded as the party of economic management. Some would say Golding has done so badly that Jamaicans have now rejected that branding. (Indeed, a majority say we would be better under colonialism!)

Says The Gleaner: "With interest rates at their lowest in decades and a 1.5 per cent growth in the economy in the first quarter of this year, Shaw might have expected that Jamaicans would rate his performance above that of Omar Davies, who controlled the public purse for much of the PNP's time in office." But 49 per cent of Jamaicans surveyed said the previous PNP administration did better in managing the economy, compared with 31 per cent who say the present JLP administration is better.

And 53 per cent said the former PNP administration did a better job in creating jobs, though Golding rode to power on the jobs, jobs, jobs mantra. The Government has been given the thumbs up for the reduction in crime, and past polls showed that crime was the number-one problem for Jamaicans. However, unemployment has now emerged as the number-one problem for Jamaicans, which should be the most worrying thing for this JLP administration, for it is precisely in this area that it is not likely to score the kinds of gains it needs for an electoral victory.

The Jamaica Development Infrastructure Programme will help, but even if Jamaica attracts significant investments, those investments are not likely to be labour-intensive. Besides, many Jamaicans don't even have the basic skills to take up the jobs, even if they were to be created. Jamaica has a serious job crisis which will not be solved in time for the next election, and this will constitute a major, some would say impenetrable, barrier for a JLP victory at the polls.

Incidentally, even in the area of crime reduction, the CVM/Don Anderson polls show that as much as 57 per cent of Jamaicans don't feel personally safer despite the reduction in murders. And people tend to move on from one problem solved to the next to be solved,

without much interval for showing gratitude to the problem which has been solved. If by the time of the election people don't have jobs and are still pressured by high electricity and food bills, and there is a perception of growing corruption, the JLP will be in serious problems.

The biggest problem faced by the Golding administration is that it is straightjacketed and hobbled by an IMF agreement which is largely contractionary, not expansionary. Nothing is heard about the Planning Institute of Jamaica-touted growth-inducement strategies which had a strong job-creation, countercyclical component. This would have been of some help.

no own goals

If some fiscal space is not created under this IMF programme, Captain Bruce will be on one very sticky wicket, indeed. With the strictures of an IMF programme and a population wary of any talk about belt-tightening and "sacrificing for the national good", etc, Captain Bruce - switching metaphors now - will have to ensure his football team plays well - and not to score own goals.

Golding must build on the goodwill which he has brought by sacking Dorothy Lightbourne and appointing Chuck to Justice, which has earned him many kudos. Chuck is highly respected in important circles in Jamaica and is highly regarded intellectually. He was the darling of the human-rights lobby. Golding has scored a major victory with his appointment, which many say is four years overdue. Rising star Chris Tufton, which the CVM/Anderson poll confirms as the second most highly rated minister of government, with a most effective public relations machinery, is seen as a good fit for industry and investment.

May I say of Karl Samuda though, having worked with him as his press secretary in both PNP and JLP administrations, that he was a highly competent, savvy and experienced industry minister who lived and breathed industry. Manufacturers know him as thoroughly knowledgeable about his subject areas. Karl has served this country well as an industry minister, and I, for one, congratulate him for his selfless service to and robust advocacy of industry. He was a true manufacturer who stood up for an embattled sector. He is also one of the most compassionate politicians I know.

smart selections

Chris will do a good job and will command the respect of the sector. He possesses the requisite humility and good-naturedness which will endear him, and he is intellectually sound and not given to theological dogmas about free market. Bobby Montague is both trained in the field of agriculture (he is an agronomist) and is a master of communication who will woo our small farmers. He is also a man of action. His grass-roots organisational skills and political acumen will stand him in good stead. Clive Mullings is respected for independence of thought and his sharp mind.

Arthur Williams, working fully to implement the public-sector transformation programme along with senior public servant Patricia Sinclair McCalla and his Cabinet secretary, Ambassador Douglas Saunders, will do well. It is good that Golding is giving the kind of attention to public-sector transformation which it deserves, and by appointing Williams as full minister to manage this area, he has sent the right signal.

People who don't know Gregory Mair and who primarily know him for that ill-advised and unworthy censure motion against Peter Phillips would not know what a right fit he is for the education ministry. Gregory has a passion for issues to do with parenting, the family, and values and attitudes. He has spoken to me feelingly about these issues and is responsible for a most enlightened motion in the House on family life. He will bring much to education and will be able to influence values programmes sorely needed.

Captain Bruce batted well last week. He must now learn to weigh his words carefully, thinking about their public impact. When people are up in arms with you and don't trust you - and when you don't have either bread or circus to give them - you can't afford to annoy them. Golding must master strategic communications. He must also show that he is in charge and is on a mission. He must lead with a sense of purpose. Implement the 'reform agenda' now.

Golding is facing a PNP which is very strategic, sagacious and sanguine. Portia has been playing her cards right. Portia is listening. Peter Phillips is being pushed up front.Can Captain Bruce match the Portia-Peter combination?

Ian Boyne is a veteran journalist. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and ianboyne1@yahoo.com.