Budget 2013: Remember Vision 2030?

Orville Taylor, Contributor

You are absolutely right; the IMF agreement is but a necessary rubber stamp, not a "lubricated conduit" towards development, if I may borrow an expression from former Prime Minister Bruce "Not in my Cabinet" Golding.

Waiting for a definitive word from the Jamaican Government regarding the impending deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is, for me, like trying to date a woman who keeps putting you off. Then finally, when she says yes, she finds herself alone at the cinema because she cried wolf once too often.

Now, the Throne Speech has been read by the governor general and the Budget has been tabled as promised by the finance minister, but the Government might have two sets of tickets for the movie because even now, we don't know the date. Nevertheless, the country has to move forward, and most of us patriotic Jamaicans want to support the Government, because it is our money that is being spent, and if the country sinks, we all are going to end up in the cesspool.

Apart from when the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) announced its mantra of 'deliverance' in the 1980s, it has been the People's National Party (PNP) that has always best articulated what sounds like a coherent, intellectual set of policies and ideologies for the advancement of the country. After all, it historically has been the party of the upper class and university-educated English speakers since O.T. Fairclough founded it and drafted other 'topanaris' like barrister Norman Manley, Professor M.G. Smith, teacher Howard Cooke and others, and 'labour leader' Alexander Bustamante, whose colour and long drawstring made up for his dearth of academic fortitude.

However, somehow, after Michael Manley died and the PNP looked to the indefatigable P.J. 'impeccable credentials' Patterson, and now Portia Simpson Miller, there was not been an explicit nationalistic direction from the leadership which made the average person understand where we are going.

Finally, as Patterson was preparing his swansong and the question was rising as to whether Phillips or Simpson Miller would have been the better man for the job, Vision 2030 was initiated in 2006. A coup de grace of sorts, it was holistic and was intended to make Jamaica "the place of choice to live, work, raise families and do business". It was a nice tagline, although clichéd. Still, it had four clear goals: (i) the empowerment of Jamaicans to achieve their highest goals; (ii) a secure, cohesive and just society; (iii) economic prosperity; and (iv) a healthy natural environment.

LITANY OF WAYS

There are some explicit objectives, and the economics is the most lucid. Recognising some of the challenges as high public debt; a complex and unfair tax system; high levels of unemployment, particularly among women and youth; poor infrastructure; high cost of capital and operating costs, and, most important, low productivity in many industries, the 2030 document committed the Government to doing a number of things.

Although it was a different finance minister, the PNP-led Government, returning from a four-year hiatus, must have been reminded of its endeavour to "ensure that Government can meet its expenditures and pay the debt over time, implement the fair and simple tax system, strengthen the banking system, and maintain stable prices and low rates of inflation".

I honestly don't know how it is going to happen, but that is why the 63 members of parliament were elected and why the PNP is in power. They must tell us how it is going to be done. Since April 1 - and it is not an All Fools' Day joke, although it could be tomfoolery - there has been an extension of gambling to Sunday, and thus expected increased tax revenues. However, I am more interested in overall growth strategies consistent with Vision 2030.

Tabled last Thursday, the Budget saw the Government going on the weight-watchers' list and trim the projected expenditure from the $602.5 billion it was in 2012-2013 to $520.9 billion, a reduction of $81 billion. Assuming that there will be no surprises and the Supplementary Estimates won't make a mockery of the initial diet, we will all be girding our waists until we are constipated. However, bitter pills are often good in the long run.

HOLLOW SPEECH

The Throne Speech, though normally general, is for me very lacking in information as regards the overall economic growth strategy. For a matter so crucial, it cannot be left for us to fill in the blanks and colour by numbers. An unspecified selling off of idle assets is part of the strategy. Patriotically, Government expects the private sector to make better use of them and ultimately "... put these assets into productive use to create jobs, goods or services".

For me, that sounds too cloudy and I am dying to hear which of our properties will be sold off and under what conditions. Truthfully, the record of major employment creation as a result of privatisation is not impressive. One will also note that once the fat cows are sold, the Government cannot sell them again. Thus, it must be assured that in the next year it is generating economic growth, because its resources which are deemed saleable are not infinite.

The role of the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) and the reduction of costs in generating electricity is a critical part of the speech. Maybe I missed the news, but I thought that the JPS was now privately owned, with minor government shares. How will Government guarantee that the JPS will indeed become more efficient and, second, how will the reduced costs be passed on to the consumer, especially the productive sector? Believe me, Marcus Garvey asked the same question in 1929.

For those of us who are not economists, we like it simple. The question is: how will we increase our net foreign exchange earnings while reducing our expenditure on imports? I have ignored the proposed highway project because the US$353 million it will cost and the US$300 million borrowed from China will simply increase the national debt and push the use of the US dollar through the roof. It is wonderful to have nice highways; however, if it is simply linking different populations of poor and unemployed, it could very well be a highway to hell.

It is noted that the "Kingston Container Terminal; the Logistics Hub; diversification of our tourism markets; expansion of hotel room capacity; and agro parks" are all potential earners of foreign exchange and thus possible engines of economic growth. However, not enough is being said.

In another week the finance minister will have spoken and we, like him, would have had time to sit and crunch the numbers. Let's keep our eyes on the foreign exchange-earning issue. The rest of it is fluff.

Dr Orville Taylor is senior lecturer in sociology at the UWI and a radio talk-show host. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and tayloronblackline@hotmail.com.