David Abrikian | Opening up is a COVID-19 mistake

Statistics do not always tell the whole story, and sometimes they are deceptive, but they often give a fairly good picture of what is going on.

The attached graph shows the number of COVID-19 infections since the first infection on March 10, 2020. The Alorica incident, which commenced 36 days after the first COVID-19 infection, and which was such an alarming issue at the time, is now barely perceptible, and of almost no relative significance. Having recovered from that ‘outbreak’, Jamaica was doing fine until shortly after Independence Day, when the unrestrained celebrations during that time led to the take-off, which was reinforced for the next 28 days leading up to elections, and which has never subsided since. Once the surge started, the increase in infections went from steep to very steep, and back to steep, but it never abated.

In recent times, due to the remarkable effort of the Ministry of Health and Wellness, spearheaded by Dr Jacquiline Bisasor-Mckenzie and Chris Tufton, after an extended period during which daily new infections vastly outnumbered recoveries, the reverse has taken place for the last 29 days, and recoveries have exceeded new infections. But we should first note that the number of active cases, currently at 19,108, has hardly been reduced. And if the current fatality rate of 3.41 per cent persists then, unfortunately, from these active cases alone, the number of predicted fatalities will be over 650. Further, if the number of active cases increases, then the focus of care for the infected will be diluted as greater demands are placed on the health sector, and the fatality rate will invariably increase. We cannot afford for the daily infection rate to again rise above the number of recoveries.

INCREASED INFECTIONS

The lowering of restrictions, as just announced by the Government, is inevitably going to bring about increased infections, in a way similar to what happened last year due to the unrestrained Independence celebrations and lead-up to elections. So many countries worldwide have been caught in the same trap of opening up their country too soon and have paid dearly for it, and it appears that we not only refuse to learn from others, but refuse to learn even from our own earlier experiences. This is demonstrated even more glaringly when we note that the specified, unrestrained period will again include our Independence period.

Further, part of the effectiveness of the restrictions lies in the message it conveys, and when the lifting of restrictions can lead to media headlines such as ‘Party time’, then the message that is needed is no longer there. One can blame the media, but the need to mitigate against any media sensationalism must also be an integral ingredient in policy decisions.

The minister of health has conveyed that if a trend pointing to another spike is detected, then earlier restrictions will then be resurrected. But by the time such a trend is noticed, the surge would have already been embedded in the populace, just waiting, and not for long, to rear its ugly head. And with less than 10 per cent of the populace receiving one vaccine dose, and only two per cent receiving two doses, we are setting up ourselves for a mighty, big fall.

The pressure groups that have been part of the influence leading to the Government’s decisions will have nothing to gain when another surge, more powerful than before, strikes home, leading to further restrictions and many other unpleasantries, to put it lightly, that will make our current inconveniences pale in comparison.

The Government needs to review its decisions. Regardless of how tough things might be now, and how silly it might appear to be to make a decision and immediately alter it, it will be exceedingly tougher, and it appears to be extremely sillier to keep going on a path that we all will regret, like The Charge of the Light Brigade.

Reason and rationale must not give way to rationalising.

David Abrikian is a civil engineer. Send feedback to dpabrikian@yahoo.com.