Jamaican confidence shaken by Hurricane Melissa
Published:Wednesday | January 21, 2026 | 12:07 AM
Consumer and business confidence in Jamaica tumbled in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to the impact of Hurricane Melissa last October which erased gains from an election-year rally earlier in the year.
Overall consumer confidence declined to 164 points in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 198.7 points in the third quarter, according to the JCC Business and Consumer Confidence Indices conducted by Market Research Services Ltd. It also lagged year earlier levels at 175 points in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The quarterly survey, which typically polls 1,000 respondents, reached only 430 people in the fourth quarter due to hurricane disruptions. Don Anderson, executive chairman of MRSL, said the smaller sample increased the margin of error but “the data is still within extreme validity”.
Consumer confidence climbed steadily through 2025 buoyed by General Election promises. “Consumer confidence rose every quarter during 2025 until the hurricane struck,” Anderson said, noting similar election trends in 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2016.
The fourth-quarter data showed more consumers expecting their incomes to deteriorate, while fewer planned major purchases such as homes or cars, or anticipated taking vacations. The storm’s impact dampened spending intentions across categories as households assessed damage and adjusted budgets.
“The only happy piece of data coming out of a whole range of gloom, is that remittances went up overall year-to-date,” Anderson said.
Remittances increased year-over-year, with 30 per cent of households receiving funds from abroad, up from 28 per cent the previous year. While below the 38 per cent peak reached in 2016, the gain suggests diaspora communities responded to the crisis by sending more support home.
Business confidence also weakened, falling 7.4 percentage points to 133 – roughly the level recorded when Hurricane Beryl struck in 2024. The index remains above 2022 levels recorded during the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting businesses view current challenges as temporary disruptions rather than structural decline.
The survey tracks sentiment across key economic indicators including employment expectations, income prospects and spending intentions. Confidence levels influence household and business decisions on hiring, investment and consumption – factors that shape Jamaica’s economic trajectory.
Hurricane Melissa struck Jamaica in late October 2025, causing widespread damage to infrastructure, homes and businesses. The storm disrupted transportation networks, agricultural production and tourism operations, creating economic headwinds that persisted through year-end.