Elizabeth Morgan | Will climate change actually eliminate fossil fuels and their economic importance?

I ended my article last week on the Guyana/Venezuela border controversy by suggesting that climate change may well be dictating that the value of fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas, may be diminished in the future. I hope so. Scientists have found that burning fossil fuels is primarily responsible for climate change.

The 28th Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 28) is currently in progress in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (November 30-December 12). The aim of this conference is to build on previous successes, paving the way to effectively tackle the global challenge of climate change. This should include the phasing out of fossil fuels (oil, coal and gas).

You will recall that at COP27, the decision was not to phase out fossil fuels but to reduce their use. As many world leaders attending or addressing COP28 continue to call for eliminating fossil fuels, it is evident that in spite of the clear and present danger and apocalyptic predictions, the addiction to fossil fuels remains.

The border controversy between Guyana and Venezuela has oil as a major factor. Venezuela, which has the world’s largest oil reserves, wants the Essequibo region because it now has proven, mineable oil resources. Venezuela clearly courted the Caribbean countries with oil. The oil resources in Essequibo are very important to the development of Guyana.

Suriname has oil resources which it is moving to develop. Trinidad and Tobago, an oil and gas producing country, wants to cooperate with Venezuela to exploit the offshore Dragon gas fields. Jamaica is still desiring an oil and gas find in its territorial waters.

So, fossil fuels remain an integral part of national development and political aspirations in the Caribbean Basin in spite of climate change and its impact.

I am not getting the impression that countries are looking keenly to the long-term significant phasing out of fossil fuels and their replacement with renewable energy sources (solar, wind, water) and other means of generating electricity. They talk about it, but, in reality, investment, research and implementation are limited. Exploiting oil and gas reserves remain the ambition, it seems to me.

MAJOR GLOBAL OIL AND GAS PRODUCERS AND RESERVES

The largest oil and gas producers in the Western Hemisphere are USA, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, Ecuador, Peru, and now countries in the CARICOM region. There are significant reserves in this hemisphere.

Oil and gas producers in Europe are the United Kingdom, Norway, and Italy. Reserves in this region are declining. Countries in Europe are more likely now to be looking at renewable sources of energy and especially with Russia’s war in Ukraine. Countries of the EU have moved away from supplies of oil and gas from Russia. European countries are also seeking cheaper sources from which to import oil.

Major oil and gas producers in Eurasia are Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and in Asia, China and India. Russia has significant reserves.

In the Middle East, the major producers are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.

Major producers in Africa are Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Egypt, and Libya. The African continent may have significant oil and gas reserves yet to be explored.

The USA produces oil and gas but it is also a major importer. If the Republicans and Donald Trump are returned to power there in 2024, the entire approach to climate change could be altered and the focus could be on increasing production of fossil fuels.

From this information, which is showing production and reserves of oil and gas centred in developing and emerging countries, is it surprising that, in spite of the dire warnings and increasing evidence of climate change, there is a reluctance to commit to phasing out fossil fuels?

SULTAN AHMED AL-JABER’S REMARKS

The President of COP28, Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber, caused consternation at the conference, when remarks he made seemed to indicate that he was denying the climate change science and promoting use of fossil fuels. Instead of phasing out, he spoke of greater focus on decarbonising these fuels. He was also accused of using the conference to promote his country’s oil sales.

Al-Jaber has denied these accusations. His country, United Arab Emirates, has supported a fund to compensate poorer nations impacted by extreme weather due to climate change. Such a fund for climate financing is important to CARICOM countries.

The question on everyone’s mind is whether there will be a significant, impactful outcome from COP28 relating to fossil fuels? Or will the hunger for fossil fuels and the wealth they can still generate continue to trump the pending climate change calamity and the required investment needed in renewable and cleaner energy sources?

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com