Elizabeth Morgan | Marco Rubio at 50th CARICOM Heads Conference

By the time this article is published, the 50th Conference of CARICOM Heads of Government, St. Kitts and Nevis, February 24-27, will be in progress.

The conference, with the theme “Beyond Words: Action Today for a Thriving, Sustainable CARICOM”, will be chaired by Hon. Dr. Terrance Drew, prime minister. This should be a historic meeting for CARICOM as it marks this milestone.

Usually, the CARICOM Heads have specially invited guests, and there are several at this meeting. Importantly, however, it was announced from the US State Department on Monday that Secretary of State Marco Rubio will be meeting with CARICOM heads on Wednesday, February 25 (today). The State Department press release informed that Rubio will be attending “ to advance shared priorities, including strengthening regional security, deepening cooperation to combat illegal immigration and illicit trafficking, and promoting economic growth, health, and energy security across the Caribbean”.

It further states that Secretary Rubio will reaffirm the US’ commitment to working with CARICOM Member States to enhance stability and prosperity in our hemisphere.

That all sounds very good for the US Trump administration.

However, these are not normal times. As pointed out in this column before, we are in troubling times. In fact, we are in one of the most dangerous periods since the end of World War II. A lot of the instability and uncertainty is originating from the USA. It is not clear from one day to the next what policies or actions will be announced or taken by executive order. This kind of eccentric leadership has not been seen in a developed western country in this post-WWII era.

It should be noted that President Donald Trump was scheduled to make his State of the Union address to Congress on Tuesday, February 24.

STATE OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE

The state of the Western Hemisphere is unsettled, anxious. This hemisphere is experiencing turbulence. There is internal strife within the USA. In North America, there is tension between the USA and Canada, and the USA and Mexico. There is now internal criminal violence in Mexico.

In the Caribbean, there is tension between the USA and Cuba, as the US aims to deny oil supplies to further weaken that government. It is reported that Marco Rubio is in talks with Raul Castro’s grandson, Col. Raúl Guillermo Rodriguez Castro. There is continuing chaos in Haiti. There is still US military presence in the South Caribbean. Reports indicate that to date, the US military has killed nearly 144 people in the Caribbean claiming, without providing evidence, that these are narco-terrorists.

Two Trinidad and Tobago families have now filed wrongful death lawsuits against the US government. Fisher folk in the Southern Caribbean are now afraid of going to sea too far from home. Jamaica is still recovering from Hurricane Melissa.

In Central and South America, Venezuela remains unsettled. With leadership change there, the USA is now controlling their oil. As indicated in this column last week, the impression is of uncertainty and division in Central and South America.

Economic growth in the hemisphere is forecast to remain sluggish averaging just over two per cent for 2026-2027. Latin America and the Caribbean have the lowest growth projection of the South. So, prosperity is questionable, which contributes to crime and immigration issues.

Note that the Summit of the Americas is not yet rescheduled.

STATE OF THE REST OF THE WORLD

There is also not great optimism about the state of the rest of the world. It is now four years since Russia invaded Ukraine with no sign of resolution so far. Russia does seem prepared to supply oil to Cuba. The Israel and the Palestinians situation remains quite unstable as President Donald Trump established his Board of Peace. In fact, Gaza and the West Bank are now out of media headlines but the situation there has not improved significantly. The US now has an armada heading to Iran. A war with Iran could have very serious implications for the global economy.

Of course, China remains a major concern for the USA and this includes China’s activities in the Western Hemisphere. India’s relationship with the USA has been strained since mid-2025.

In Africa, there is tension between the USA and South Africa, which led them to pull back from the G20. The US has undertaken bombing raids in Nigeria, it claims, in defence of Christians. US military advisers are now in Nigeria. A dreadful civil war continues in Sudan.

On projected economic growth, Europe and other developed countries in Asia and Oceania are averaging about 1.2 per cent the developing countries of Asia are averaging 4.5 per cent and Africa is averaging about 4 per cent. Increased trade and growth are in these countries of the South.

STATE OF MULTILATERALISM

Multilateralism is being weakened as the US actively seeks to undermine the system which is important to small states. On climate change, the US has been rolling back regulations which were aimed at reducing carbon emissions. So, with its lack of engagement at the international level and reducing regulations, the USA is certainly not assisting the goal to mitigate climate change. As we face more severe weather conditions, it seems that the global focus on mitigating climate change is off course.

State of Trade

Confusion and uncertainty were brought to global trade by the USA. The US Supreme Court recently ruled these Trump tariffs illegal. Angered by the Court’s decision and seeking to retain tariffs, under the Trade Act, Trump imposed 15 per cent tariffs on all US imports, which he can only apply for 150 days. There are likely exceptions as before. This means, however, that CARICOM exports to the USA now face an increased 15 per cent tariff. Most of CARICOM’s members have a trade deficit with the USA.

The US, for nearly a decade now, has been undermining the WTO rules-based international system. Donald Trump has been attempting to return trade to the 19th century power plays. Trade, however, has been growing among and with countries of the South.

CARICOM’s issues to raise

So, from this assessment, CARICOM Heads have a lot of issues to raise of national and regional importance when they meet with Secretary Rubio – geopolitical, including Haiti and Cuba; multilateral, including climate change; trade and economic; security, and immigration. CARICOM countries cannot thrive in an unstable, unpredictable and insecure global environment. Will the Heads have the courage to voice their concerns or will fear and deference rob them of words and action? Should we conclude that the state of CARICOM is impotence?

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.