UPDATE: PNP internal poll predicts Crawford by-election win

The People's National Party (PNP) today released the findings of an internal poll which predicts that its prospective candidate, Senator Damion Crawford, will prevail in the by-election for the East Portland constituency.

The by-election, which is set for April 4, is to fill the vacancy caused by the brutal slaying of late Member of Parliament, Dr Lynvale Bloomfield.

The PNP acknowledged, in a statement today, that the poll was conducted by the Barbados-based Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES) at the end of last month before Crawford was officially selected and before Prime Minister Andrew Holness announced the date for the by-election.

It says 612 persons were interviewed in 18 polling divisions where the results were very close in the last general elections.

“These interviews were conducted face-to-face at households where no more than one person was interviewed per household,” the PNP explained in a statement.

According to the PNP, the poll found that 57 per cent of respondents indicated that they would support a PNP candidate.

Further, it found that Crawford garnered 28 per cent support to emerge as the “most preferred” PNP candidate from a list of possible challengers within his party.

The PNP says his Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) challenger, Ann-Marie Vaz enjoyed 25 per cent support among respondents.

Vaz was the only person mentioned as a possible candidate for the JLP.

According to the PNP internal poll, Crawford’s 28 per cent showing compares favourably to Vaz, "especially if one presumes that Crawford would benefit from the residual 29 per cent that went to other suggested PNP candidates included in the poll."

It found, too, that 53 per cent of respondents selected the PNP when asked to indicate which party they preferred.

Twenty-seven per cent said they preferred the JLP while 20 per cent were unsure, the PNP internal poll found while acknowledging that those persons who were unsure could significantly impact the outcome of the by-election.

“We are, however, persuaded that the historic support retained by the PNP in this constituency continues to be a significant factor, especially as the 2016 victory was achieved in the face of a moderate swing against the PNP,” the party quoted CADRES as saying about the outcome of the by-election.

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