2025 promised much for tourism and tested everything
Published:Monday | January 19, 2026 | 5:14 PMJanet Silvera/Gleaner Writer
WESTERN BUREAU:
Jamaica’s tourism sector entered 2025 with confidence, but by year’s end, the numbers told a more complicated story.
For the period January to November, the island welcomed approximately 3.69 million visitors, including both stopover and cruise arrivals, representing an 8.3 per cent decline compared with the same period in 2024.
For much of the year, however, that outcome was far from inevitable. Through the first half of 2025, Jamaica remained broadly within reach of its targets. Between January and June, total visitor arrivals declined by just over five per cent, with steady stopover performance partially offsetting softer cruise numbers. At the end of July, cumulative arrivals stood at roughly 2.35 million, down a modest 4.1 per cent, reinforcing expectations that the destination could still close the year close to 2024 levels.
The first quarter was uneven but not alarming. January through March produced just over 1.05 million visitors, a marginal 1.1 per cent decline, with stopover arrivals essentially flat year-on-year. Cruise traffic, however, began showing early signs of weakness, falling by nearly 20 per cent over the same period, hinting at challenges that would intensify later in the year.
Several external pressures converged early. Lingering effects of a US travel advisory issued in 2024 continued to temper demand and constrained tour-operator marketing. At the same time, global uncertainty, driven by a heated U.S. election cycle, persistent inflation, and geopolitical instability, caused many consumers to delay discretionary travel. Aviation constraints further complicated recovery, as aircraft delivery delays, labour disputes, and parts shortages limited airlines’ ability to add capacity and contributed to higher fares.
Momentum began to shift around the Easter period. Seasonal travel helped narrow earlier gaps, and in May, Jamaica received a significant boost when the US travel advisory was lowered from Level Three to Level Two. The downgrade restored confidence among tour operators and allowed Jamaica to return to front-line marketing rather than being positioned as a secondary option. By the end of May, cumulative visitor arrivals had edged closer to 2024 levels, down just 3.2 per cent, with stopover travel outperforming cruise activity.
By early summer, the sector was firmly back in motion. June, July and August delivered Jamaica’s strongest run of the year. In August alone, total visitor arrivals reached 335,449, a 4.4 per cent increase year-on-year, supported by a sharp rebound in cruise traffic and resilient stopover demand. At the end of August, the year-to-date deficit had narrowed to 4.1 per cent, reinforcing optimism that a strong winter season could carry the destination across the line.
Event-driven travel played an increasingly important role during this period, particularly in Kingston, where concerts, festivals and business travel helped stabilise demand during traditionally softer months. At the same time, renewed hotel investment and expanding airlift signalled continued long-term confidence in the destination, even as global travel behaviour normalised following the post-COVID surge.
The most notable structural shift in 2025 was the rise of Latin America as a growth market. While traditional source markets softened, Latin America expanded by more than 80 per cent, adding over 55,000 visitors year-on-year. Growth from Panama, Colombia and Lima was driven largely by tour-operator-backed, package-based travel models, which proved more resilient during periods of volatility. In contrast, North American travellers remained more price-sensitive, particularly as the cost of all-inclusive packages in Jamaica climbed, compared to Mexico’s average variance per night of US$30-50 and Dominican Republic US$50 – 80 less.
By early autumn, all indicators pointed toward a strong finish. September arrivals remained relatively stable, and October closed with cumulative visitor numbers at approximately 3.47 million, narrowing the year-to-date decline to 3.5 per cent. Confidence had returned, airlift was expanding, and winter bookings were tracking well.
Then came the turning point.
November delivered a sharp reversal. Total visitor arrivals fell by 6.6 per cent year-on-year, driven by a 44 per cent collapse in cruise passenger arrivals, which fell from nearly 95,000 the previous year to just over 52,000. Stopover travel also declined, though far more modestly, underscoring the growing vulnerability of cruise performance to operational disruptions and broader market shocks. The impact of Hurricane Melissa caused the slowdown, disrupting itineraries, dampening demand, and halting what had been a promising recovery trajectory.
By the end of November, Jamaica’s cumulative visitor arrivals stood at 3.69 million, compared with 4.03 million in 2024, effectively sealing the year’s outcome and erasing hopes of a late-season surge.
The United Kingdom continued its multi-year decline throughout the year, with economic strain, post-Brexit fallout, and rising living costs suppressing long-haul leisure travel. Airline rotations into Montego Bay were reduced, and while attention has increasingly shifted toward continental Europe, geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine, weighed heavily on consumer confidence across the region.
Despite the setbacks, cautious optimism remains as the sector looks ahead to 2026. Major resort reopenings expected between February and March could lift room inventory from roughly 70 per cent to as much as 70 per cent by Easter, stimulating demand and restoring capacity. Still, the outlook remains tightly bound to forces beyond Jamaica’s control, global politics, aviation constraints, inflation, and evolving visa and immigration policies.
In many ways, 2025 was a year of contradictions. It began with fragility, regained momentum through diversification and renewed confidence, and ended with a sharp setback just as the sector appeared poised for a strong winter season. Yet even amid hurricanes, advisories, inflation, aircraft shortages and geopolitical strain, Jamaica welcomed nearly 3.7 million visitors through November, expanded into new markets, and once again demonstrated that resilience is not accidental, it is built.
That resilience is now being actively tested and mobilised.
As the new year unfolds, recovery efforts have moved decisively from assessment to action. Jamaica has launched an aggressive global marketing drive aimed at rebuilding confidence and accelerating demand in the wake of Hurricane Melissa. Minister of Tourism Edmund Bartlett has already begun leading a high-level international marketing blitz, the latest in New York and continuing to Madrid, positioning Jamaica’s recovery narrative directly before key travel trade, media and investment partners.
The New York mission, which brings together major US media houses, travel advisers and frontline sellers, is designed to reinforce confidence in Destination Jamaica at a critical moment, while strengthening relationships that drive bookings in the island’s largest source market. That effort will be followed by Jamaica’s participation at FITUR, one of the world’s most influential tourism tradeshows, where engagement with global tour operators, airlines, hotel brands and investors is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the winter and summer seasons ahead.
For policymakers, the message is clear: recovery is not being left to chance. The strategy now unfolding is as much about restoring livelihoods and momentum as it is about restoring numbers, signalling to the world that Jamaica is not only open, but focused, organised and determined to convert resilience into renewed growth.
If 2025 delivered lessons, then 2026 will test how well they were learned.