How satellites, science shape hurricane forecasts

Imagine a hurricane making landfall on the very day you decide to visit the supermarket or the beach – and imagine facing it without warning. For small island states in the tropics, such a scenario would be catastrophic.

Forecasting has long shielded countries such as Jamaica from that reality, thanks in part to the work of international agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA. Locally, the Meteorological Service of Jamaica provides the anchor.

Yet as climate change accelerates and extreme weather becomes more frequent, the resilience of this forecasting system is under growing scrutiny.

In recent months, even relatively minor events – including three successive cold fronts – have underscored the volatility of the regional climate. Forecasting, once seen as a public convenience, has become a strategic necessity. But its reliability depends on a fragile combination of global cooperation, advanced technology and local expertise.

According to Dr Jhordanne Jones, a former NOAA Climate and Global Change Fellow and now a research fellow at the University of the West Indies, modern forecasting is only as strong as the data that feed it. “In order to predict anything within the climate system you have to be able to cover the globe. You have to be able to monitor everything, which is a huge undertaking.” That undertaking relies overwhelmingly on meteorological satellites – assets owned and operated almost entirely by larger powers.

This raises an obvious question: in a tense era of geopolitical competition, should Small Island States worry about their dependence on foreign satellite data?

Rohan Brown, manager of Weather Services at the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, says the risk is mitigated by long-standing international rules. “Meteorology operates under long-standing global cooperation agreements under the convention of the [The World Meteorological Organization] WMO and its data sharing policy. Small Island States benefit significantly from shared data, research, and global forecasting systems. The relationship is collaborative and mutually beneficial,” he told The Gleaner.

DATA BLENDING

Satellites represent only one layer of the system. Forecasting also depends on ground-based instruments – sensors that measure atmospheric conditions continuously. This is where the limitations of small island geographies become apparent. Large-scale global models struggle to capture microclimates, land–sea interactions and Jamaica’s mountainous terrain.

“The global models such as the NAM, European or GSF generate information but that information may not always take into consideration the local timesteps, the land sea breeze interaction, the mountains, the orographic lift. Therefore, local knowledge and expertise are used in association with the numerical models. Sometimes the numerical models may miss those microclimate situations,” Brown noted.

Jones agrees. “So you have observations on the ground that give us some ground truth to verify and validate other instruments, and you have satellites from space that give you aerial coverage. Afterwards you have to create what they call a homogenous dataset where you stitch everything together like a jigsaw puzzle.” Forecasting, then, is not merely a matter of technology but of blending global data with local interpretation.

Some of these gaps could, in theory, be addressed by smaller, regionally dedicated satellites. The cost of launching satellites has fallen sharply with reusable rockets, as highlighted in reporting by NBC News. Even so, Brown argues that satellite ownership is unlikely in the short term. Jamaica, he says, lacks the infrastructure needed to process such data independently.

“The raw satellite data must be processed in order to achieve forecasting models,” he explains – a task requiring vast computing power and highly specialised expertise. Jamaica does not yet possess the necessary capacity. “No national satellite ground station, high cost of raw data storage, limited supercomputing infrastructure, and the need for specialised satellite processing expertise.”

These technical constraints come at a moment when the region faces a new and alarming climate reality. Brown warns that rapid intensification – storms strengthening dramatically in a short period – is becoming more common. “During the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season we saw where there were a number of systems that developed into hurricanes but also encountered rapid intensification. Based on the atmospheric conditions and human induced global warming, this may be our new norm.” Category 3, 4 and 5 systems, such as Hurricane Melissa, are expected to become routine.

Jones is equally stark in her assessment. “Climate change is not a future reality; it is a now reality. As Caribbean small island states we are in fact in regions of the globe that will warm much quicker versus the global mean. We got a taste of that in 2024 and 2025 (Beryl and Melissa). So there’s a lot for us to do in terms of safeguarding our future, monitoring our environment and ensuring we have the kind of data that we need”.

editorial@gleanerjm.com