Heavy Calculus still the favourite

CACULUS GIVES weight all around in Saturday’s Miracle Man Cup, as much as 25lb to in-form LURE OF LUCY, but should use class and stamina to defy the handicaps at nine and a half furlongs.

Jason DaCosta’s choice of jockey, lightweight claimer Jordan Barrett, clearly points to LURE OF LUCY being the stable fancy among his three runners in the six-horse field.

Barrett effectively rides at 102lb, thereabouts, putting 101lb within reach of the lightweight for his assignment aboard United States-bred LURE OF LUCY, 25lb lighter than CALCULUS.

Despite the conditions of the race making CALCULUS the only recognised grade-one runner in the event, causing him to be burdened with topweight 126lb, Gary Subratie has opted for stronger handling over handicaps, calling up Robert Halledeen with no consideration for weight.

Given LURE OF LUCY’s improvement as a sprinter-stayer since the back end of last season, Subratie’s gamble is a dangerous one, especially against a foreigner, who appears to have found her niche at two turns by running rivals into the ground.

LURE OF LUCY almost got away with her sprinter-stayer speed against stablemate MINIATURE MAN, who caught her on the line at nine furlongs and 25 yards in December. Her next target, POSITIVE ID, had no such luck and was handed a three-length whipping by the five-year-old mare at the trip on January 2.

Stepping up to open allowance January 28, LURE OF LUCY ran her heart out at a mile against I’VE GOT MAGIC, losing second by a nose to DUKE after leading her fellow American to almost the furlong pole.

LURE OF LUCY proved her versatility last Saturday, taking the fight to speedy GOD OF LOVE at five furlongs straight, losing by a half-length to LABAN.

CALCULUS will have to report razor sharp, which he appears to be, to chase and collar LURE OF LUCY. In addition to giving away loads of weight, CALCULUS has no help to tackle LURE OF LUCY on the lead.

However, CALCULUS has distance in his favour and has worked really well, by Subratie’s standards, for a two-turn race.

Seemingly innocent workouts of striding six furlongs in 1:23.4 and five furlongs in 1:04.2 indicate that CALCULUS, who was noted closing into fifth place in December’s Mouttet Mile, should use class to wear down LURE OF LUCY, who might have gone to one dance too many in the last five weeks.

Asked to run twenty-two and a half tough furlongs in five weeks against top-class runners - a mile, five furlongs straight, plus nine and a half – could nullify LURE OF LUCY’s advantage at the scale.