Love lost for JLP, PNP

An agonising final quarter of 2009 into early 2010, took its toll on the Bruce Golding-led Jamaica Labour Party administration, causing it to falter in its favourable rating, a Gleaner-commissioned poll found.

The islandwide poll, conducted on April 24 and 25 and May 1, with a sample size of 1,008 and a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent, found that the ruling party slipped from 41 per cent in August 2009 to 29 per cent, reflecting a dramatic drop of 12 per cent.

It is the first time since the JLP assumed state power in 2007 that it has faltered so drastically.

In August 2007, weeks before the general election, the Bill Johnson poll showed that 45 per cent of Jamaicans had found favour with the Golding-led team and 44 per cent in June 2008.

Correspondingly, the April 2010 poll found that a significant 51 per cent of Jamaicans surveyed found the JLP unfavourable.

Unenviable position

The party's unenviable position climbed steadily from 39 per cent in 2007 and 2008 to 44 per cent in August 2009 before rising beyond the dreaded 50 per cent mark.

The People's National Party (PNP) has not benefited from the JLP's dip in the favourability rating.

In fact, the PNP has also suffered a setback, though not nearly as drastic as the JLP, slipping from 43 per cent in August 2009 to 41 per cent in 41 per cent in favourable outlook.

However, the PNP can take comfort in the drop in its unfavourablity rating from 42 per cent in August 2009 to 37 per cent in April 2010.

Political analysts Richard 'Dickie' Crawford and Dr Hume Johnson are of the view that the JLP's poor showing is reflective of the mishandling of the Coke extradition affair, among other things.

"Government's unfavourability rating is not surprising considering the grave blunders that have been made in handling the Coke extradition request and the associated Manatt, Phelps & Phillips saga where the Government and/or the JLP approached the law firm to lobby for the dropping of the extradition request by the present US administration," argued Crawford.

"This (poll findings) seems to reflect the tumultuous last several months that the JLP has had," Johnson echoed. "The administration made tremendous mistakes, displayed errors in judgement in the handling of several issues such as the questions raised over the Christopher 'Dudus' Coke extradition matter, and the sale of Air Jamaica, and its communication and public relations skills left much to be desired."

Accordingly, Johnson said the poll findings are hardly surprising.

"With the JLP only two years in government by this time, people appeared willing to give the government a chance to prove itself. That some 40-odd per cent of the population did not find favour with both parties is disturbing," Johnson contended.

Disenchantment

"It suggests that although remarkable support remains for both parties, strong levels of disenchantment and dissatisfaction with the performance of politicians overall remained."

She said it was extraordinary, that the PNP has failed to benefit from this loss of faith in the JLP.

"While the favourable opinion rating for the PNP has remained consistent since August 2009, and the party is out of favour with fewer people than it was nine months ago, the massive 12 per cent shift in favourability away from the JLP appears to have landed in the category of the uncommitted rather than to the PNP," Johnson noted.

She said this should be of great concern to both parties as it speaks to the high levels of disaffection, apathy and distrust being experienced by the Jamaican people.

"That six per cent fewer persons feel unfavourable about the PNP may be viewed as an important victory by the PNP. It is not sufficient to take comfort from it," she warned.

Crawford agrees.

He noted that the category 'not sure' moved from 22 per cent in 2009 to 20 per cent in 2010, indicating the shift in more precise and growing negative views of the present JLP government.

"These results are somewhat new or unusual for Jamaica as the same April polls show that the PNP's favourability rating has declined by two per cent," Crawford said.

He said the results come at a time when Jamaica is facing its greatest and most widely publicised political crisis and significant numbers of people are calling for the prime minister's resignation as well as some others seemingly directly responsible for this political and international relations imbroglio which has significantly tarnished Jamaica's reputation in the world.

"The PNP will be sobered by the results. They are ahead statistically in favourability but the masses are not marching for the party to take over Jamaica at this time, despite the almost unbelievable state of affairs in the country," Crawford stressed.