Op-ed contribution: When millions cannot be quantified

If nearly three million people live in Jamaica and not all of them work, then how do they all actually live? Let us see what insights we can glean from the latest labour market press release from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (statin).

As at October 2010, Statin reports the Jamaican population as 2,703,700 people. Of these, 698,500 Jamaicans are "under-14".

This is 26 per cent of the population and growing. As children, they are not expected to work and so they depend on others for their needs such as food, clothing, education, shelter and other items.

It is a fact that the loss of each and every job by a parent, caregiver or generous donor negatively impacts these children who depend on them.

But children are not the only ones that are not expected to work.

Statin has another category. "All persons 14 years and older who were not classified as employed or unemployed are considered to be 'outside the labour force'. Included in this category are full-time students; persons incapable of working; and persons not wanting to work or not available for work during the reference week."

This category covers 765,300 Jamaicans. Simply put, some 28 per cent of the population - for some reason other than being under age 14 - is not expected to work.

Not only is this a significant cohort, it is growing. Between October 2009 and October 2010, some 22,800 more people were "outside the labour force".

By simple addition:

26% + 28% = 54%

698,500 + 765,300 = 1,463,800

That is a majority of Jamaicans - nearly 1.5 million people - who are technically not expected to work.

So who is expected to work?

Statin defines the labour force as the sum of the 'unemployed' and the 'employed'.

There are 1,239,900 people in the labour force, representing a minority of Jamaicans at 46 per cent of the population.

It is one thing for the labour force to be a minority; it is another that it is shrinking.

In the 12-month period ending October 2010, some 18,000 fewer people were in the labour force, so even more people were neither employed nor unemployed.

Who are the unemployed? They are expected to be working but are not. That is some 148,900 people. According to Statin, "the unemployed labour force comprises not only those persons who were 'looking for work' but also persons 'wanting work and available for work' even if they did not actively seek work during the reference period."

Taken altogether, these numbers tell us that 1,612,700 people are technically not working, the vast majority of whom are not expected to work.

So, what are they doing and how do they live? Well, no one knows for sure.

Anyone who does not generate income depends on those who do. Direct dependence is on family, friends and charity. Indirect dependence is through taxpayer-funded Government programmes.

Of course, informal and under-ground economies exist, but they are unsustainable. And, no matter what, 'under-14' will always be, rightly so, dependent.

On whom are all the dependents dependent? Well, there are still 1,091,000 people to account for - 40 per cent of the population.

Statin says they are 'employed'. By its definition "the employed labour force is made up of all persons 14 years and over in employment; that is all persons working - whether for their own account or as employees - for at least one hour during the survey week, together with persons who had jobs but were not working during the survey week."

This deserves a long pause for two reasons.

First, focus on the "at least one hour per week" part of the definition. People who work for one hour per week cannot support themselves, let alone a family.

Second, focus on the fact that 40 per cent is already a minority of Jamaicans.

Now ask, what has been the trend? Is employment increasing or decreasing? According to the recently released PIOJ document, A Growth-Inducement Strategy for Jamaica in the Short and Medium Term, the employed labour force has declined by 65,300 persons since the start of the recession in October 2008.

Between October 2009 and October 2010, some 21,000 fewer persons were "employed". What do we make of this?

As the demands of 1.6 million or 60 per cent of the population increase on a shrinking labour force that has been shedding jobs for a protracted period - in an environment of rising prices - we must
ask ourselves: Should we be concerned that some 40 per cent of
Jamaicans - the minority - are considered to be employed even if they
cannot earn enough to provide for themselves and their families?

Are
not the employed the bedrock of socio-economic stability? Is a
shrinking minority expected to support a growing majority? Are not the
employed the ones with the means to consume goods and services,
providing businesses with revenues to sustain employment and pay taxes?
And what of the youth — growing in numbers, growing in unemployment and
becoming less engaged in productive activity?

Simply put, the status quo is so costly that it cannot be quantified.

It
would seem that enlightened self-interest alone should encourage every
person to try to find a way to work together to develop an economy
designed to create sustainable jobs for millions of Jamaicans.

If
we were so fixed on the goal of job creation, we could engage in real
compromise on issues like legislation, regulation, taxation, funding,
training and certification, among others.

For
every day that we do not act to create an economy designed to create
sustainable jobs, not only do the benefits escape us, the costs continue
to rise without end. And then, how would we all live?

Deika Morrison is managing director of Mdk Advisory & Consulting
Limited, and creator of the newly launched 'Made in Jamaica Catalogue'.

deika@jamaicacatalogue.com