Heirs to the throne

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• Holness, Phillips seen as most suitable successors to JLP, PNP leaders
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THIRTY-NINE-year-old Andrew Holness is Jamaica's pick as the best man to replace Bruce Golding as leader of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) now. At the same time, Peter Phillips, 61, is the person most Jamaicans see as best suited to lead the People's National Party (PNP) in the absence of Portia Simpson Miller.

The findings are contained in the most recent Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll, which also found that Golding and Simpson Miller remain the people's clear choice to lead their respective parties.

Golding, who has been leader of the JLP since 2005, has been faced with numerous criticisms as a result of the way he has led his Government. The poll, however, found that just less than seven in every 10 Jamaicans (67 per cent) say there is no one in the JLP who would make a better leader than Golding at this time.

His opposite number, Simpson Miller, who has survived one leadership challenge as president of the PNP, also enjoys strong support among Jamaicans, with 64 per cent of respondents saying she is the best person to lead the PNP.

Holness, the minister of education, is twice as favoured as his closest rival for leadership of the JLP. The poll found that 20 per cent of the respondents would want to see him take over from Golding, while seven per cent had a preference for Christopher Tufton, the minister of industry, investment and commerce. Three per cent said Audley Shaw.

Within the PNP, 20 per cent said Phillips is the most suitable person to take over from Simpson Miller. Six per cent of respondents have a preference for Peter Bunting, and three per cent said K.D. Knight. Dr Omar Davies, the former finance minister, also received the nod from three per cent of the respondents.

Poll respondents

The poll was conducted among 1,008 respondents islandwide from May 28 to 29 and June 5 to 6. It has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent.

Holness has long been seen as a future leader of the JLP. He was first elected to the House of Representatives in 1997 to represent West Central St Andrew and served as opposition spokesperson on land and development, housing, and education. He was made education minister after the JLP won the 2007 general election.

But sources inside the party say Holness has not yet made the political connections needed to ensure that he gets the party's top job.

Holness is the head of the JLP's communications unit and enjoys the support of the Young Turks in the party. However, he angered some of his supporters in 2009 when he pulled out of the race to replace Derrick Smith as a deputy leader.

Mayor of Kingston Desmond McKenzie was elected to the post unopposed and critics of Holness regularly point to this when questioning whether he is ready to take charge of the party.

Back after defeats

Inside the PNP, the question of replacing Simpson Miller is avoided like the plague, and Phillips, who is now back in the party's shadow Cabinet after spending two years on the back benches, has repeatedly stated that there is no vacancy for the post of party president. Phillips, who has led three ministries - health, transport, and national security - developed his current position after two crushing losses to Simpson Miller.

In 2006, Phillips was one of four candidates nominated to succeed P.J. Patterson as the PNP president, but they were defeated by Simpson Miller. After the party's defeat in the 2007 general election, Phillips mounted a new challenge for the post, but was again trounced.

Of the others in the party, Bunting, the PNP's general secretary, has been identified as a possible future leader, but inside the party, it is believed that he has not paid his political dues and his time has not yet come.

With neither Golding nor Simpson Miller likely to face a challenge before the next general election, it is expected that they will lead their parties into that battle, but it is almost certain that the loser will have a hard time continuing in his or her post.