From Water Boy to PM? Shaw JLP front-runner if Golding quits

Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Writer

Audley Shaw has come a long way in politics - rising from the uncomplimentary classification of Edward Seaga's 'Water Boy' in the mid-1990s to the current characterisation by some within the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) as the man most likely to replace Bruce Golding as head of the Government.

Black and blue from the beatings he has received from civil society over his handling of the extradition request for Chris-topher 'Dudus' Coke and the subsequent engagement of the American law firm Manatt, Phelps & Phillips, Prime Minister Golding retreated behind the green cloak of the JLP expecting to find solace.

But it appears that even within the belly of the JLP the brickbats are out for Golding, and he is finding himself more and more isolated. According to those close to him, he is seriously considering throwing in the towel.

Weeks ago, Golding told journalists that he was still undecided about continuing in the role of prime minister, despite a late-May endorsement by the JLP.

"God is not finished with me yet but I have to make some determinations as to what I consider to be in the best interest of the country, and secondly, what I think can best position the party for what I consider the best interest of the country," Golding declared at a media briefing.

"I am not a problematic person and I never planned to die in this job," added Golding.

Golding close to quitting

Since then, there have been more and more whispers that the under-pressure prime minister could be close to calling it quits, with the party already looking at possible replacements.

A Sunday Gleaner probe has revealed that Shaw, the rambunctious politician who made a name for himself with his knack for unearthing the mud on the former People's National Party (PNP) administration, is emerging as the first choice to lead the JLP if Golding calls it a day.

Many JLP insiders are of the view that it is not a case of if, but when, Golding - who has been on the ropes for more than a year - will quit.

Senior JLP insiders say while Shaw, the minister of finance, has emerged the favourite, he would have to go through JLP chairman and Deputy Prime Minister Dr Kenneth Baugh.

But that is little worry for the Shaw backers, who note that he is not by any means a bashful man.

An influential JLP member with knowledge of the inner workings of the party told The Sunday Gleaner that if Golding quits Baugh could be ushered in as the prime minister, as he is already serving in the position of deputy prime minister.

"Shaw is the preferred choice but Baugh would have an easier passage because he is deputy prime minister, and he would automatically act in the top position."

The JLP insider explained that members of the party would be called to vote to facilitate Shaw's elevation to the coveted position of prime minister.

He added: "Shaw would readily get the position if there is a Baugh compromise."

This scenario is reminiscent of 1967, when Hugh Shearer was elected to lead the country in an acrimonious run-off with Clem Tavares, after Prime Minister Donald Sangster died.

Now some members of the JLP say Baugh, who is highly respected by both sides of the political divide, appears too jaded to continue in the role of party chairman, so he would not be of much assistance in steering the troubled party into calm waters if Golding walks away.

A JLP stalwart said he would readily opt for Shaw at this time. "He communicates better and has much more stature in the international community."

Accordingly, some in the party are hoping that Baugh would make way for Shaw.

Another senior JLP member said Baugh is viewed as likeable but too unassertive.

Yet another JLP member said that, unknown to the public at large, up until the point of Golding's re-entry into the JLP, there were many who felt that Shaw was the front-runner to replace Seaga, despite the public posturing of some senior members, such as Pearnel Charles and Mike Henry.

"When Bruce came in, Audley withdrew and threw his support behind him," said the senior JLP member.

Another JLP insider noted the difficulty the party would face if it comes down to a choice of either Shaw or Baugh.

"I don't even want to envisage this, we are talking about two of my favourite persons."

But guided by the rumblings in the JLP, there are indications that some of the senior ministers who are regarded as members of the old guard would be reluctant to support Shaw, as he is considered to be their junior.

Insiders say Baugh has not been authoritative or commanding in either the position of chairman or deputy prime minister.

Baugh's role in, and his knowledge of, the Manatt, Phelps & Phillips affair has left many in the party mystified.

'Water Boy'

This would not be the first time that Shaw would benefit from Golding's departure from a coveted position.

When Golding, who was opposition spokesman on finance, left the JLP in 1995 to form the National Democratic Movement, then JLP leader Seaga chose Shaw to shadow the all-important portfolio.

Shaw's reputation, earned by his ability to showcase scandals in the PNP Government and his seeming close ties to Seaga, earned him the name 'Water Boy' by the sardonic Comrades.

But he remained undaunted and would wrestle with the then Finance Minister Dr Omar Davies, while the public anticipation was heightened as the Budget Debate approached each year.

Clearly buoyed by his knack for making the PNP administration squirm time and again, Shaw emerged one of the JLP strongmen in the lead-up to the 2007 election victory.

After winning his North East Manchester seat in 1993, Shaw was handed the position of opposition spokesman on public utilities, where he made his name as a vigilant watchdog.

But Shaw needed to make a name for himself in the party and, with Seaga's help, he was ushered into the position of deputy leader in charge of Area Council Three.

When Seaga retired from representational politics in 2005, Shaw pragmatically quashed his leadership ambitions and threw his support behind Golding.

He was rewarded with the challenging Finance and the Public Service portfolio after that 2007 victory.

'One Third'

Shaw's political rivals derisively accorded him the title 'One Third', because there were three senior ministers appointed to the Finance Ministry.

Then came the real storm - the global economic meltdown only a year into the JLP's first term, followed by the tough International Monetary Fund negotiations.

As the JLP Government churned out at least three tax packages in less than a year, Shaw was buffeted to and fro in the economic storm.

Stinging criticisms from the parliamentary Opposition, political and financial observers, and just about everyone else, did not help to calm the storm.

But he remained at the helm and steadied the ship to the point where the foreign exchange market is stable and many other economic indicators are heading in the right direction.

All that is left is for Shaw to deliver measures to grow the economy and create jobs to continue to build on his growing reputation as a competent manager of the country's finances.

With that in place, Shaw could be a shoo-in for the top job in the government if Golding throws in the towel any time soon.