ECLAC predicts regional export revenue growth

The Economic Com-mission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) is predicting that the value of goods exported from Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 27 per cent in 2011.

In a report presented in Chile on Tuesday, ECLAC said the growth would be similar to last year's, resulting from a nine per cent increase in the volume of exports and an 18 per cent rise in the price of products exported by the region.

In the report Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2010-2011, the UN agency said the value of imports would increase by 23 per cent, with the region accumulating a trade surplus of slightly more than US$80 billion by the end of 2011.

ECLAC said that South-South exchange, headed by China and the rest of emerging Asia, is currently the main driving force of global trade growth, since the volume of exports from developing countries grew by 17 per cent in 2010, compared with 13 per cent in industrialised countries.

The organisation stressed that international trade has significantly contributed to economic recovery following the economic and financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.

However, it also warned that at present, the complex situation in developed countries, in particular the United States and in Europe, is starting to affect emerging nations and could decrease the rate of growth of exports to these markets in 2012.

ECLAC said the specific impact of the slowdown will depend on the type of products exported and the markets to which they are directed.

Lower growth

Likewise, it said lower growth of emerging economies, which would further weaken industrialised countries, should lower international prices of basic products, affecting the trade balances and current account balances of the countries exporting them.

"The levels of global volatility and uncertainty are worrying," said ECLAC executive secretary Alicia Brcena as she presented the findings.

"There are still significant global imbalances, such as the sovereign debt crisis in various European countries and the fiscal uncertainty in the United States of America, which would in turn weaken international trade," she said.

Over the past decade, Brcena said the relative importance of Asia in Latin America and the Caribbean foreign trade increased significantly, compared with the fall in US participation and the stagnation of the European Union.

ECLAC said Latin America and the Caribbean have become the main destination for exports from the United States, receiving 23 per cent of exports in 2010, compared to 22 per cent from Asia and 19 per cent from Canada.

The region represents only two per cent of the European Union's total trade.

ECLAC also said the US lacks an "explicit trade policy" towards Latin America and the Caribbean, despite being the region's main partner.

"This situation contrasts with the dynamism shown by lasting negotiations in recent years between various countries and their European and Asian partners," said ECLAC.