Editorial | CARICOM can salvage its Venezuela fiasco

In a different age, Jamaica would be in the leadership, if not at the helm, of global initiatives for a peaceful and constitutional solution to the political crisis in Venezuela. At least, it would be steering Caribbean Community (CARICOM) efforts, as was the case in 2004, before a triumvirate of big powers, in similar circumstances, orchestrated the ‘resignation’ and exile of the Haitian president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide.

Either Jamaica, or CARICOM as a group, may be able to reprise the heroic efforts of 15 years, until its initiative was derailed by the United States, France and Canada, with support from the European Union. For, not only is the 15-member community badly fractured over the Venezuela issue, but Jamaica, which historically provides diplomatic and political leadership in the English-speaking Caribbean, is badly compromised on this matter and clearly incapable of performing any role as honest-broker.

Or, put differently, Kingston’s hand would unlikely be welcomed by the government of the embattled president, Nicolas Maduro.

Earlier this month, Andrew Holness’ Government announced that it would forcefully reacquire Venezuela’s 49 per cent stake in the Petrojam oil refinery, although all the dispute resolution mechanisms had not been triggered.

Shortly after, Jamaica – as did three other CARICOM states – voted with 18 other Organisation American States (OAS) members not to recognise Mr Maudro’s government because of disputed presidential elections last May.

In the circumstance, Jamaica’s argument that the two developments were unrelated, and that their timing was merely coincidental, will, to most people, ring hollow.

All this doesn’t mean that Jamaica and CARICOM can’t still have a role or that they have nothing to offer to defuse a potential march into civil war, following last week’s declaration by Juan Guaido, the head of the country’s National Assembly, of himself as interim president. He was swiftly recognised by the United States, Canada and several Latin American countries.

It is unlikely that Mr Guaido would have risked his declaration without prior assurances of support from the United States and the Latin American critics of the Maduro regime.

Indeed, Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state, last week insisted that nations “pick a side” in the Venezuela dispute. “No delays, no more games,” he told the UN Security Council.

GRAVE DANGERS

There are grave dangers here. Venezuela’s armed forces have declared loyalty to Mr Maduro and branded Mr Guaido’s action an attempted coup. In this combustible environment, and absent of a change of heart by the military, a miscalculation by Mr Guaido and his external supporters could ignite civil war, returning the region to the instability of three decades ago when ideologically-centred civil wars raged in Central America.

Some analysts will note it as more than passing significance that Donald Trump, the US president, named Elliot Abrams, a Reagan administration policy hawk, and alumnus of the Central American strategies of the 1980s, as his envoy on Venezuela.

That is not a good omen.

Happily, prior to Mr Pompeo’s incendiary remarks at the UN, CARICOM leaders, including Mr Holness, issued a statement reiterating the community’s commitment to “non-interference and non-intervention in the affairs of states, (and) respect for sovereignty”.

More significantly, the leaders stressed that Venezuela’s “long-standing political crisis, which has been exacerbated recent events, can only be resolved peacefully through meaningful dialogue and diplomacy”.

Given the divisions in CARICOM, the community’s offer of its good offices comes, if accepted, with hurdles to clear, unlike when prime ministerial sub-group, anchored by Jamaica, led the way.

Our suggestion, however, is for the community to name a Special Envoy to Venezuela, to operate in the fashion of Trinidad and Tobago’s Reggie Dumas, who, with the backing of CARICOM’s leaders, was appointed to a similar role by Kofi Anan, the then secretary general of the United Nations.

Mr Dumas engaged in a rigorous round of shuttle diplomacy, gaining traction towards a settlement of the Aristide crisis, before his, and CARICOM’s efforts were undermined by the Western triumvirate. The outcome of Haiti 2004, however, shouldn’t define the approach to Venezuela today.