Michael Coombs | COVID-19 – A need for careful risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis

As countries across the globe develop and implement measures to contain the spread and impact of COVID-19, the need for careful risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis is becoming increasingly important to avoid unnecessary social and economic impact from measures not supported by scientific evidence and sound public health practice as being effective. This is of course very important for economically challenged countries such as ours.

The nature of disease outbreaks, especially involving new variants of a pre-existing family of viruses such as the one implicated in COVID-19, under­standably evokes anxiety and fear. Coupled with other factors at play such as political prudence, this can easily result in inappropriate, excessive and even harmful responses. Human rights and bioethical breaches may also be among the casualties.

Citing a couple examples in the current Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) surrounding COVID-19, the World Health Organization, in its most recent advisory to member states, has again advised against the ­application of travel and trade restrictions ­targeting countries with COVID-19 ­outbreaks because of their proven ineffectiveness from evidence, and the social and ­economic cost incurred diverting well-needed resources, and creating barriers to aid and technical support. Yet countries continue to apply and expand travel bans among other measures affecting trade and the movement of people.

A second example of an excessive and harmful response to this outbreak is the detention of passengers on cruise ships because of symptomatic passengers or crew members. Public health experts have recently documented their strong ­criticism of this ineffective and harmful practice which, as in the case of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, likely facilitated the spread of the virus which was highly predictable.

Combining the aforementioned points with the fact that the death rate from COVID-19 is predicted by many experts to fall below two per cent as undetected mild cases are identified, I urge the Jamaican authorities to constantly review existing measures and policies aimed at ­protecting our citizens, to ensure not only health protection, but to minimise unnecessary social and economic impact through ongoing risk assessment and cost-­benefit analysis.

In addition, the need for ­evidence-based risk communication cannot be over-emphasised.

Dr Michael Coombs is a public health specialist and founder and chair of the National Association for the Family. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and nafjamaicawi@gmail.com