Editorial | Robust scheme for economy’s opening

THE COVID-19 pandemic, as thoughtful people around the world have argued, will likely trigger, over the medium to long term, profound changes to the global economy and international political arrangements.

That is the difficult part with respect to Jamaica’s economic future. The short-term part is easy, but requires real effort and effective mobilisation if the Government and private sector are up to it.

With respect to the larger global issues, many of the assumptions cemented over the last three decades about international supply chains are seriously disrupted because of the actions by governments to halt the spread of the virus that causes the disease. Their relevance will now be questioned. That goes to the heart of economic globalisation, including issues such as whether, or to what extent, should countries, especially small ones like Jamaica, pursue policies of self-sufficiency.

There is, unfortunately, the danger, or rather the likelihood, of a serious discourse being overrun, captured and vacuously interpreted by ideological illiberals, represented by the likes of America’s Donald Trump. Indeed, Mr Trump’s antipathy to multilateralism is a threat to small, poor countries like Jamaica, for which a rules-based international system offers the best insulation against arbitrary behaviour by powerful nations. In other words, multilateralism, despite the need for updating its current arrangements, is an antidote to weak countries having to choose between the rival ideological/political umbrellas of great powers.

It is against this backdrop, and the deep implications for the future of the global system, and Jamaica’s place within it, that this newspaper urged our Government to begin to plan, with its regional partners, for the post-COVID-19 environment. For the Caribbean, with its high indebtedness, its great dependence on international trade, its proximity to the United States and its vulnerability to climate change and global warming, must be prepared to be a loud and assertive advocate at any table where the new international architecture is being contemplated, or designed.

SIGNIFICANT ATTENTION

It is on this aspect of COVID-19’s aftermath that we expect the economic recovery task force, recently established by Prime Minister Andrew Holness, to be paying significant attention, although little to nothing has been said about the group’s work since the naming of its members. For the point is, determining how Jamaica can emerge from the substantial lockdown of its economy while the highly contagious virus is still around is relatively easy.

First, the Government has to accept some givens, and be clear about what is in Jamaica’s control. When tourism rebounds isn’t. That will depend on the actions taken by the governments of Jamaica’s main tourism markets, and the confidence and personal financial situations of potential tourists in these countries once they have the green light to travel.

Further, we know that outside of quarantining and at-home sheltering, the most efficacious method of preventing the spread of the COVID-19 virus is universal and proper wearing of masks in public, robustly supported by physical distancing and good hygiene, frequent handwashing and cleaning of surfaces. The Government knows, too, that with nearly a fifth of Jamaicans living below the poverty line, and perhaps greater numbers existing on the margins, hustling daily for their livelihoods, a prolonged economic lockdown is unsustainable.

Emerging from the shutdown, therefore, rests on two components involving activities that are, on the one hand, the remit of Government; and, on the other, those that are the obligations of the private sector and civil society.

AGGRESSIVE ENFORCEMENT

First, the Government has to ensure an aggressive enforcement of its regulation for mask wearing in public places, including in businesses and in public transportation. That requirement is, at best, patchily observed, even by the staff of enterprises. The Government must be ready, and willing, to police and throw the book at the operators of businesses whose staff and/or clients flout the rules.

Second, we repeat, Government, with civil society or community groups, have to facilitate the widespread wearing of masks by, first, making them affordable to the poorest people. This, for example, can be achieved by the Social Development Commission supporting the establishment of community enterprises by bringing together seamstresses and seeding them with the fabric for their first round of production. These efforts would be supported by community wardens, as a subset of a national campaign, reinforcing the message of mask wearing and good hygiene, and of physical distancing in public places such as markets and transport stations. Frankly, we haven’t seen the Government’s will, or capacity to mobilise, on this front. Its efforts are tepid.

Third, the Government has to ramp up testing for the coronavirus and systematically employ data/analytics to inform policy debates.

The private sector’s role is to be vigilant in ensuring that the rules are followed in their establishments, outside of which they will be deemed to have abandoned the anti-COVID-19 partnership and, therefore, subject to the full force of the law, including the possibility of closure.