Alvin Wint | Jamaican imperatives in COVID-19 war

IN A video that has made the rounds on social media, a Jamaican child states to neighbours that she sees walking on the road “yu na heer se de govament se yu mus tan a yu yaad”. Her injunction to her neighbours reflects the fact that she has received communication, in language that she best understands, about the Government of Jamaica’s efforts to reduce the transmission of the COVID-19 virus. The ‘stay at home’ message has reverberated around the world as 211 countries and territories, in addition to Jamaica, have seen confirmed COVID-19 cases.

Jamaica is at war with this virus and has adopted some of the protocols that are familiar to countries at war. There has been a unity of purpose in the country, with the Government, the parliamentary Opposition, media, private sector, civil society, international development partners and academia speaking largely with one voice – there is a need to respond adroitly and effectively to the health crisis, while cushioning the blow from the closure of affected industries and the implementation of essential health-control measures.

By and large, Jamaican residents, in this spirit of togetherness in the fight against an alien enemy, have largely conformed to the mandated health-control measures.

At the same time, the country has recognised the importance of charting a path of economic recovery that considers how best Jamaica can recover lost jobs and output, while simultaneously determining how opportunities can be found in the recovery process that would make the country more resilient in the long term. At the forefront of the recovery planning effort is the COVID-19 Economic Recovery Task Force, which is chaired by the minister of finance and the public service, who is also in charge of national planning, with his ministerial oversight of Jamaica’s national planning, data collection and financial regulatory agencies.

TASK FORCE RESPONSIBILITY

This task force, which has been established under the framework of social dialogue, which is reflected in the work and existence of the National Social Partnership Council, includes significant ministerial representation in addition to representation from the private sector, the trade unions, key public agencies and civil society. The Task Force, formed on April 27, 2020, has begun its work. Task force members have been divided into subcoNOMIC RECOVERmmittees that are working on developing recommendations to deal with enhancing the prospects of economic recovery across sectors and industries, while ensuring that, overall, there is the development of a COVID-19-resilient economy and society, and a recognition of the macro fiscal consequences of all policy actions.

The imperatives for Jamaica in responding to this crisis will include the need to ensure, as is the case in all countries, that the policy responses chosen are those most likely to lead to enhancing national welfare, and not just the welfare of a particular subset of the nation’s citizens. In so doing, policymakers will need to take into account issues that are specific to Jamaica. This need for policy that is contextually relevant has long been part of the recognised Caribbean reality. It is the reason why the region’s universities spend so much of their research effort on studying the context of the Caribbean.

There are a number of contextual issues that could well be important in the crafting of appropriate policy responses. One is that research is emerging about the factors that lead to the incidence of COVID-19 cases and the morbidity rates associated with COVID-19. Globally, it is well established that older individuals and those with particular health profiles are most vulnerable. While Jamaica’s population is not aged by global standards, Jamaica does have a high level of the incidence of non-communicable diseases that are associated with COVID-19 vulnerability.

RESEARCH CONCLUSION

More preliminary research is suggesting that individuals who are deficient in vitamin D levels are also more vulnerable to the effects of the virus. The conclusions of this research seem to be supported by the fact that, thus far, the incidence of COVID-19 has been much greater in countries with lower levels of sun exposure, with sunshine, of course, being one of nature’s key sources of vitamin D. Also, in countries with some of the most significant incidences of COVID-19 cases and deaths, the epicentres have been in the regions of these countries that have proportionally less sun exposure, whether this be Lombardy in northern Italy, Wuhan in central China, or the northeastern region of the United States, where New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts have accounted, thus far, for 40 per cent of COVID-19 cases and 44 per cent of COVID-19 deaths.

If this research is confirmed with ongoing study, it would appear that Jamaica’s tropical climate should provide some protection against the effects of the virus and could easily lead to complacency with respect to how it is managed. Such complacency, however, would be ill-conceived because of another Jamaican imperative.

Small countries like Jamaica are inherently risky. Risk levels are exacerbated by small scale. The essence of risk mitigation through insurance, for example, is about the risk-sharing benefits of scale. Any significant outbreak of COVID-19 in a small country like Jamaica, even if morbidity levels are below global norms, is likely to be more detrimental to national welfare than a proportionate outbreak in a larger country that does not face the same level of national risk exposure. Such risks would also be exacerbated by the constraints of Jamaica’s health system, even though much has been done to expand its capacity in the time gained by the early and relatively successful efforts to contain the spread of the virus.

HIGH LEVEL OF INFORMALITY

Yet another Jamaican imperative is the structure of the Jamaican economy. The Jamaican economy has a high level of informality. The Statistical Institute of Jamaica has long recognised the level of informality of the Jamaican economy and focuses much of its efforts in measuring employment and the changes in the gross domestic product (GDP) on the informal economy. Estimates indicate that more than 40 per cent of Jamaica’s GDP is generated in the informal economy. One of the challenges of the informal economy is that economic activity and economic reward are largely synchronous. Individuals working in the informal economy lose economic reward as soon as economic activity ceases. There is little in the way of paid vacations, sick leave benefits, furlough possibilities or other mechanisms that can cushion the shock of economic displacement. With this level of informality, the social and economic impacts of the type of economic displacement that has resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic are far-reaching.

It is these and other Jamaican imperatives that Jamaica’s policymakers will be delicately balancing over the near term as policy responses are crafted to deal with the intersecting health, economic and social crises that have been unleashed in this COVID-19 war. Yet, in all of this, Jamaicans must not yield their spirit and willingness to fight together. And, incidentally, ‘tan a yu yaad’ is a better slogan than ‘stay at home’ because the Jamaican ‘yaad’ incorporates house and yard. Whether or not further research supports the link between COVID-19 vulnerability and vitamin D deficiency, there is more than a century of research in support of the value of fresh air, sunshine and exercise in improving health outcomes. So, even our most vulnerable, many of whom are sensibly avoiding leaving their precincts, should ensure that they get as much sunshine, fresh air and exercise as they can during this period of restricted movement.

Alvin Wint is professor emeritus of international business, The University of the West Indies; chair, Statistical Institute of Jamaica; member, COVID-19 Economic Recovery Taskforce.