Carolyn Cooper | Holness called election in a panic?

The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) appears to be in a state of panic, despite its seemingly unbeatable lead in the polls. According to the latest RJRGLEANER Don Anderson poll, done between July 23 and August 3, the JLP was 16 percentage points ahead of the PNP. The JLP has doubled its lead on the People’s National Party (PNP) over the last five months.

A Mello TV/Bill Johnson poll conducted in June confirmed that Prime Minister Holness then enjoyed an approval rating of 81 per cent. By contrast, the leader of the opposition, Dr Peter Phillips, had a dismal approval rating of 32 per cent. Common sense experts are also sure they know which way the wind is blowing. A wicked meme on social media endorses the findings of Anderson and Johnson: “Peter Phillips tested negative for Prime Minister”. It seems as if it’s only Phillips who doesn’t know his test results.

Since victory seemed so certain for the JLP, what was the rush to call the general election now? The lead over the PNP would, presumably, continue to grow over the next several months. The opposition party could hardly catch up. Why couldn’t the prime minister have waited so that local government elections could have been held at the same time? What was the cause of the panic? Or, if you prefer, what was the political calculation?

In a Gleaner article published on August 9, Erica Virtue reports that, “Political watchers have theorised that if Prime Minister Andrew Holness fails to summon Jamaicans to the polls in the next 30 days, he could risk a wipeout of the political capital he has built up with recent polls showing his Jamaica Labour Party enjoying a comfortable lead over the opposition People’s National Party”. The headline of the article highlighted another supposedly critical consideration: ‘Call it, Andrew – PM urged to hold polls in next 30 days as COVID-19 could shift political tide soon’.

POLITICIANS SCAMMING THE PUBLIC

Are voters really concerned about the coronavirus? The response of far too many Jamaicans to the virus is remarkably similar to their view of political corruption. By all accounts, corruption doesn’t matter. Jamaican voters seem to philosophically accept the fact that all politicians are corrupt. Green and orange! Both parties have a long history of scamming the Jamaican public. The PNP is circulating a list of 100 cases of JLP corruption. What does the JLP’s list look like? Is it just “scandal for scandal”, as Andrew Holness recently threatened?

Lots of people have not been taking COVID-19 precautions seriously. They don’t wear masks at all. When some of them bother to wear a mask, it’s purely decorative. It’s on the chin, the neck or hanging off one ear. Then, the mouth may be covered, but not the nose. Comfort seems to be the primary consideration, not safety. These careless citizens don’t seem to mind catching the virus. Andrew Holness didn’t need to rush to call the general election because “COVID-19 could shift political tide”.

The tide has already shifted. For many people, the virus is no big deal. Even though it’s spiking! A Gleaner editorial, ‘Time for COVID-19 reset’, published on August 26, reports that, “The Government has blamed this upward spiral to heavy partying during the August 1 and August 6 Emancipation and Independence celebrations, when it relaxed restrictions on public events for what, according to Dr Tufton’s imprudent description, was ‘reward’ for the population’s good behaviour in adhering to COVID-19 protocols over a long period.”

That “reward” is as crazy as giving a gallon of ice cream to someone who has been losing weight on a strict diet. The “reward” cannot be encouragement to do the very thing you’re trying to overcome. The Gleaner editorial alarmingly reports that, “The Government, Dr Tufton conceded, was aware of the risks inherent in its actions”. The editorial makes a damning judgement on Tufton’s confession: “It was a reckless decision that could cause [sic] lives and impact livelihoods”.

PREDICTABLE SPIKE

The other reckless decision was calling the election in what looks like a fit of panic, given the predictable spike in virus cases. Since Holness is hell-bent on holding on to power, he should have been disciplined enough to ban all the usual public campaigning activities right from the start. No motorcades or drive-throughs attracting crowds of boisterous supporters from both parties!

The election campaign is certainly going to cause another huge spike in virus cases. That’s the absurd logic of calling the election in order to avoid the risk of losing the election because of COVID-19. And the JLP, the presumptive winner of the election, will have to deal with the disruptive consequences of its self-serving decision to rush to the polls.

After sacrificing freedom for safety, responsible citizens should not be forced to risk our lives in order to exercise our right to vote. At the very least, the prime minister must ban public gatherings on election day. Holness’ hot-headed decision to call the election now may very well turn the tide of outraged public opinion against the JLP.

The PNP might just pull off an upset victory. What an irony that would be!

- Carolyn Cooper, PhD, is a specialist on culture and development. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and karokupa@gmail.com.