Orville Taylor | Election overconfidence and COVID-19

In 2011, Jamaica was stunned although the signs were there. It was expected that the tall, super fit incumbent would indeed defend his title. It was a day like today, when many of my friends put money down and said that there is a big difference between what the ‘form books’ say and what the big horse does on the track.

The big man false-started and it was over. And the ‘Beast’, who had shown the signs in the national championships, delivered big time. Over the next few months world champion Yohan Blake showed that it was not a fluke, with times of the ominous 9.69 with no wind assistance and a scary 19.26 from one of the worst starts in his career. Overconfidence is dangerous, and even when the polls say that you are not even on the favourites list, it is who turns up and performs on the day. Ask Tajay Gayle, who was not even given a chance to make the long jump finals last year.

Given that the general election is just a few days away, you would be forgiven for thinking that I was referring to the 2011 version when Andrew Holness followed the boosting from his handlers and fans and complied with the ‘call it Andrew, call it!’ chants. Well, I was talking about that too. True, there were polls which predicted that he would have pulled it off, but somehow the People’s National Party (PNP) found some money and their ‘show dem the fist’ put them a nose ahead of the ‘me an’ mi neighba, voting fa laba’.

Holness, now prime minister and defending champion, certainly does not want to follow the pattern of the last three elections where overconfident incumbents, including himself, were shocked. I am willing to bet that the PNP is still shell-shocked from 2016 and are still denying that they ‘look like losers.’

In 2016, the pollsters almost all got it wrong. Don Anderson had predicted a victory skinnier that Raymond Pryce and Alando Terrelonge and that was within the margin of error. But a margin of error of four per cent meant that the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) got in by a single seat.

LESSON TO BE LEARNT

Lesson to be learnt: seats win elections; not just votes. Don’t forget that in the USA in the same year, Donald Trump got less of the popular vote by a margin larger than the total population on this island. Yet he won the electoral colleges. George W. Bush also did that in 2000.

Here in Jamrock, the PNP, despite its more than 203,000 votes in 1949, only won 13 seats, compared to the JLP who garnered just over 199,500 but captured 17 seats and the leadership of the country.

There are some safe garrison seats such as Western Kingston and St Andrew South where opponents should only expect token performances. However, seats where people are affected by the COVID-19 pandemic should make both parties nervous.

As the pandemic spreads, persons showing symptoms will have to stay home. Indeed, only the bravest will enter a polling division, to use the same pencil that somebody with running nose naught (snot), or even a sniffle voted. Even a person clearing her throat due to thirst on election day will put the fear of God in voters.

While it might be true that the last Anderson polls showed a split where 51 per cent of respondents believed that they were not at high risk of catching COVID-19; given that Usain Bolt is still fast enough to run down and catch the virus, the figure might just be higher. For the record, despite the self-declaration by 90 per cent of those polled that they have been wearing masks, that certainly was not the case at some of the social events. In any event, wearing a mask with the nostrils peering out like bandit eyes is like respondents wearing condoms to protect themselves from COVID-19.

AMBIGUOUS MESSAGE

Legendary epidemiologist Prof Peter Figueroa laments that “There was an ambiguous message to people because people seemed to believe that we had controlled the epidemic and somehow we had done very well, but did not appreciate that COVID was going to come back.”

Our cases have doubled in the month of August and more than half of Jamaicans disagreed with the reopening of the tourism sector. Add to that the 88 per cent of residents who are peeved with the Government’s decision not to test tourists, and it is easy to see how a marginal community with a rise in cases could choose not to back the V. The Government’s disclaimer over lack of resources might not resound well with some voters. After all, for all the money that tourists bring in, they have no vote.

I follow the pollsters but, in pandemics and crises attitudes change in seconds and the victory will decided by who, despite the COVID-19 fear and restrictions, hustles to get out its supporters.

- Dr Orville Taylor is head of the Department of Sociology at The University of the West Indies, a radio talk-show host, and author of ‘Broken Promises, Hearts and Pockets’. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and tayloronblackline@hotmail.com.