Orville Taylor | COVID-19 game time

Running a country, especially in the middle of a pandemic, is like playing a game of basketball. You can’t use the ones for skittles, golf or table tennis. Moreover, while the fans and spectators are those for whom one plays, the only thing that matters during the game is the action on the court; not the chanting from the sidelines. Ultimately, the athlete is responsible for scoring or missing.

When this COVID menace came to our shores, early last year, the Jamaican government came out bold and strong. In short order we took decisive action. Curfews, lockdowns, imposition of mask regimes, working-from-home mandates and a slew of interventions got us in a comfort zone. Indeed, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the World Health Organization (WHO), sang the nation’s praises and tweeted his satisfaction. Singling out health minister, Dr Christopher Tufton, he remarked, “Thank you so much for your leadership – and preparedness – for #COVID19, @christufton. #Jamaica Being ready for #coronavirus is key to pushing it back fast. Together, for a safer world!”

It was a source of great pride, especially given the comparisons with the way in which the USA and other metropolitan countries were handling the pandemic. There was little pressure on our health systems and we seemed to be managing the numbers.

In the absence of vaccines, we were doing well, with a mortality rate below the global average.

With full confidence, the Government called the general election and claimed an embarrassing victory, moving away from a split in the middle to a mudslide. Sore loser supporters of the Opposition, itself in deep turmoil, grumbled about it being a superspreader event. Had they won, it would have been another story. Nonetheless, two weeks after the September 2020 polls, the seven-day new case average was approximately 180, peaking at 230 on September 20, 2020.

HISTORICAL PATTERNS

A shrewd man, I have no doubt the Prime Minister Andrew Holness understood historical patterns. Thus, given that history has been unkind to incumbent political leaders during pandemics, the timing of the election was perfect. Just over 100 years earlier, in the middle of the ‘Spanish Flu’ pandemic, Democrat American President Woodrow Wilson called the mid-term elections, and saw a loss of the House of Congress to the Republicans. In the following presidential election, the rout was complete, with Republican Warren G Harding gaining ascendancy.

Since the pandemic gained legs globally, a very popular Donald Trump lost in the American election. Closer to home in Belize the People’s United Party defeated the incumbent United Democratic Party, the St Lucia Labour Party trounced the United Workers Party this July, and a ‘stone throw’ away in St Vincent, the prime minister, despite a decisive victory, saw major dissent over his handling of the pandemic.

It should be noted that last year, the incumbent New Zealand Labour Party had a landslide in October. Led by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, her country has been a poster child for success in managing the COVID-19 war. With a population of approximately 5,000,000, this country has had 3,729 cases and 29 deaths when this column was being written. In contrast with a positivity rate close to 50 per cent, more than 69,000 of us have contracted the virus with close to 1,600 dying.

This is not a war that we are winning. And there is an emerging pattern directly correlated to government action or inaction. Having collared the virus after the election, bringing the daily rate down to around 65, the Government was gaining and holding ground right up to Christmas 2020. Then, the reins were loosened as we slowly reopened. By Valentine’s Day we were back in the daily 200s and progressing linearly, the seven-day average was around 675 by Easter.

FLEW THE GATE

Strict measures worked and the slope declined steadily, reaching a seven-day average of 34 by July 4, 2020. And then, against the best of advice and caution, we ‘flew the gate.’ On August 29, 2020, we had 929 cases with an average daily rate of 769. The last time I checked, each millionaire had only one vote apiece, and elections are won when the average poor Jamaican believes and trusts the leadership. Holness admits that he took boosting from the crowd; “we have powerful interests and when the consequences come, you can’t find anybody. It wasn’t their fault, they didn’t ask for it, they didn’t play any role in it.” Tough leaders stand their ground when right.

Never mind the fact that we are an undisciplined bunch. That is not in dispute. Yet, the lack of discipline and steadfastness in the war on COVID-19 is not about the testosterone and energy drink fuelled young men, who post idiotic videos cursing the political leadership. It is about the money people who have ‘secret’ parties, and the politicians, including those in the government, who feel that they can treat the police and other agents with impunity.

Indeed, we welcome the prime minister’s declaration that “sectoral interests can’t push the Government into decisions that affect the entire society”. However, we never elected them; therefore, it is our Government who we hold accountable.

It’s the third quarter and we are 10 points down. Let’s see what Government does during the timeout.

Dr Orville Taylor is head of the Department of Sociology at The University of the West Indies, a radio talk-show host, and author of ‘Broken Promises, Hearts and Pockets’. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and tayloronblackline@hotmail.com.