Reudon Eversley | A tale of victory and defeat

THERE ARE times when the intoxicating euphoria of victory can easily hide the sobering reality of simultaneous defeat. The 2022 landslide general election victory for Prime Minister Mia Mottley and her Barbados Labour Party (BLP ) in some ways matches the description.

Any time a victory is outweighed by actual and potential costs, it’s called a Pyrrhic victory. The expression dates back to the Battle of Asculum in 279 BC where Pyrrhus, the king of Epirus, defeated the mighty Roman army. He did so, however, at substantial cost, including the loss of his best military officers.

The main casualty of the recent general election, called 18 months ahead of schedule, was not the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) as most persons are inclined to believe. It was Barbadian democracy which took a hard blow in the form of a sharp 24 per cent decline in voter participation.

As turnout is a universally accepted indicator of the health of a country’s democracy, it’s fair to say Barbados’ is approaching the door of intensive care. Turnout plummeted from 60 per cent in 2018 to 45 per cent, the lowest on record, according to preliminary data.

It means an outright majority – 55 per cent of registered voters – chose not to exercise their franchise. What conclusions and lessons can be drawn? There are several. However, this analysis will highlight just a few.

The first and perhaps most significant is that the re-elected BLP, despite winning all 30 seats for the second consecutive time, enjoys the support of just 77,838 or 31.2 per cent of the island’s 248,815 registered voters. Hence, we have a government with an absolute majority conferred by a minority representing the majority of those who voted.

Although the government is legally constituted, it cannot claim, against this backdrop, to be a genuine reflection of the will of the majority. The fact is, even though the BLP got 69 per cent of total votes cast, it still was not the choice of two-thirds of total registered voters.

Given this sobering reality. Ms Mottley would be well advised to reach out across the divide, practise a politics of sensitivity, and adopt a more consensus-based approach to policymaking, especially on sensitive issues which are prone to cause national division.

Public concerns about the pandemic, amid a resurgence of COVID 19 cases due to the highly contagious omicron variant, undoubtedly had a dampening effect on turnout. However, not to the extent some would have us believe. Strict application of public health protocols at polling stations guaranteed a relatively safe environment for voters.

There’s a deeper issue but it has been largely overlooked in post-election discussion. It has to do with an underlying crisis of confidence in our democracy where a growing number of disenchanted citizens feel voting is a waste of time because it is not delivering meaningful solutions to their needs.

This issue raises questions about the long-term viability of both DLP and BLP which have dominated Barbadian politics for half a century and have taken turns running the government since Independence.

MOMENTUM

Ms Mottley, indisputably the island’s foremost political personality at the moment, is the BLP’s star attraction. However, her season, like everyone else’s, will eventually come to an end. In fact, she served notice during the campaign that this election was likely to be her last. Besides, with a 4% swing against the BLP, it can be argued that her star is beginning to fade.

Unless negative swings are effectively countered by whoever is at the receiving end, they can gain momentum over time. Thus, bringing forward the election can be viewed as a shrewd political move. Sixteen seats were identified as “vulnerable” for the BLP going into this election. Waiting until later could have delivered a different outcome.

Despite not winning a seat, it isn’t all doom and gloom for the DLP. It attracted a favourable five per cent swing and its tally of votes increased to 30,273, 27 per cent of total votes cast but just 12.1 per cent of the total electorate, which is significantly below its heyday. Were it not for an ill-timed “glorious” remark by a political relic, the DLP’s performance might have been better.

As for the Alliance Party for Progress, the other smaller parties and independents, they collectively polled 4,728 votes. This figure represents four per cent of turnout and just two per cent of the total electorate. Needless to say, they have a lot of groundwork to do to improve their current marginal status.

When Ms Mottley announced the January 19 poll, she posited there were urgent issues which had to be addressed “now” and could not wait “another 18 months”. She didn’t give details but it’s now clear these issues relate to an economy in worse shape after a severe battering by the two-year-long pandemic.

Consequently, Barbadians are anticipating tougher austerity under a proposed new agreement with the International Monetary Fund. Austerity often imposes hardship on voters and brings political fallout for an incumbent. Public reaction is easy to predict if expected belt-tightening is a bit too harsh.

People vote for better, not worse. In politics, an ever-present risk is the fickle nature of the electorate. Today’s hero is always at risk of becoming tomorrow’s villain because those who shout “Hail to the Lord’s anointed” on election night can quickly change their chorus to “In the name of God, go!” Ms Mottley and her government are walking a tightrope.

The DLP is undoubtedly hurting after suffering a second straight “red wash”. However, given the hard choices facing Barbados, losing may actually be a blessing in disguise. If Barbados is serious about enhancing democracy, the time has come to reconsider continued use of the ‘first past the post’ electoral system.

As the country moves to draft a new republican constitution, favourable consideration should be given, as an essential aspect of governance reform, to shifting to proportional representation. It’s a fairer model than ‘first past the post’ because parliamentary seat allocations more accurately reflect the will of voters.

Announcing the election, Ms Mottley underscored the need for unity given the challenges facing the country. However, by hinting at her departure during the campaign, she may have ironically opened the door to sharp divisions arising within her own camp. What was the urgency of her doing so? Couldn’t she have delayed revealing her thoughts?

More often than not, news of the pending departure of a leader triggers fierce, factional jockeying for succession, especially inside a ruling party. The contest can be quite bruising because the coveted prize is the prime ministership. In the national interest, the BLP leadership transition must be skilfully managed.

The last two elections indicate a fundamental shift is taking place in Barbados’ political culture. Whereas party support in the past was unswerving because of voter loyalty, it’s increasingly fickle today. It’s now driven more by a voter’s understanding of “what you can do for me”.

VOTER PARTICIPATION

And so, Barbadian politics has seen the quiet rise of the “voter consumer”. When they go to the polls, their behaviour is similar to a shopper browsing store aisles for the right product to meet individualised needs. The younger demographic, in particular, is so inclined. What a party did in the past is of little concern.

Declining voter participation is sending a strong message to political parties that their product offerings aren’t sufficiently attractive or relevant. If they are listening, it presents an opportunity for serious stocktaking, especially by the DLP whose immediate priority should be restructuring and renewal, as well as the BLP for whom the bell already tolls.

Reudon Eversley is a Canada-trained political strategist, strategic communication specialist and journalist. A former editor of the Barbados Advocate and news director at both the Caribbean News Agency and Caribbean Broadcasting Corporation. He has advised governments and worked on election campaigns across the Caribbean. Email: reudon@gmx.com, columns@gleanerjm.com.