Editorial | Foreign policy lesson in Ukraine war

One of the axioms of international relations of which Russia’s war on Ukraine has reminded, and Jamaica and its partners in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) would do well to internalise, is that the great powers have no permanent friends. Alliances are often fluid. Strategic interests, geopolitical and economic, are more often paramount.

The corollary to this premise is that it is sensible for small vulnerable states like those in the Caribbean to pursue principled foreign policies, which, broadly, translates to relatively predictable behaviour. Or put another way, a diplomacy defined by transactional relationship will likely lead to countries engaging in vulgar dances and enjoying little respect.

In this context it wasn’t surprising that CARICOM’s leaders, at their summit in Belize earlier this month, issued a ringing condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, invoking the principle of the peaceful settlement of disputes and “respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty” of independent states.

“Any concerns the Russian Federation may have must be resolved diplomatically and not through warfare,” the heads of government said.

This newspaper concurs. For violation of those principles leaves countries like ours vulnerable to arbitrary actions by more powerful states, whether that strength is reflected in military or economic might.

The sometimes fickleness of great power behaviour has been on display in this hemisphere in recent days, since the start of the Ukraine war.

In 2019, in the face of allegations that he was holding on to power through rigged elections, and complaints about human rights abuses, the United States broke relations with Nicolas Maduro’s government in Venezuela, which Washington deemed illegitimate. Juan Guaido, then the president of the National Assembly, was recognised by the Americas, and scores of other countries, as the country’s constitutional leader.

COURTING VENEZUELA

Much of Venezuela’s assets abroad were seized and Mr Maduro and several key officials faced stiff sanctions. Indeed, the United States indicted Mr Maduro for alleged drug trafficking and placed a US$15 million bounty on his head.

Already faltering, Venezuela’s oil industry came close to collapse. Mr Maduro pulled Venezuela closer to America’s strategic rivals, China and Russia, as well as to Iran, against which the Americans have major grievances.

In the year he has been president, Joe Biden has largely pursued the Venezuela script as his predecessor, Donald Trump.

However, with commodity prices already overheating from increasing demand in the post-pandemic economic recovery and supply chain problems, the situation has been exacerbated by the new geopolitical situation. Petrol prices in the United States are at their highest in decades.

Last week, US president, Mr Biden, dispatched two senior State Department officials – Juan Gonzalez, the senior director for Western Hemisphere Affairs, and the ambassador to Venezuela, James Story – to Caracas for talks with Mr Maduro’s government.

Regime change, which, hitherto, appeared to be the primary plank of America’s Venezuela policy, is suddenly far less important than seeking ways to bring more Venezuelan oil to the global market. The expectation is that this would help to ease prices. Venezuela is a major Russian ally in the hemisphere. Peeling it off would further isolate Moscow.

In the face of criticisms from some quarters of home, the Biden administration claimed that the aim of the trip was to push for the release of the US prisoners in Venezuela, rather than seeking Caracas’ help in boosting oil production.

According to a State Department spokesman, the purpose of the visit was to push for democracy in the country and promote the release of imprisoned Americans. The US denied that there was a quid pro quo for the release of two Americans.

DANGEROUS DANCE

Juan Guaido, whose political position had previously faltered inside Venezuela, has not been thrown under the bus by the Americans. At least, not as yet. Domestic criticism of the Biden administration’s move towards rapprochement might provide him some insulation – for now. But Mr Guaido must know that his position is tenuous.

While Jamaica is a close neighbour and good friend of the United States, Washington’s overture to the Maduro government, with which Jamaica has a sour relationship (Jamaica openly sided with the US on the election matter), ought to be a cautionary tale for this country’s foreign policy establishment. Powerful countries can readily eschew principle and, if it is in their economic and geostrategic interest, overturn policy without price or consequence.

Small countries don’t, as a rule, enjoy that luxury. Their greatest diplomatic currency is a highly principled foreign policy, where positions are sincerely held, clearly articulated and in line with established concepts, such as those declared by the CARICOM leaders.

Flirtatious dances to the tunes of the latest, and most endowed piper is usually dangerous. Perceived gains are quickly forfeited.

Pursuing a principled foreign policy isn’t always easy and has, at times, been costly to Jamaica. But over the long run it has proven more beneficial and afforded us more respect and greater influence than at the periods when we have surrendered to the whims of transactional relations.

In the latter circumstances, you are liable to be thrown under the bus.