Elizabeth Morgan | A stark reality: In development, Jamaica not so far from 1962

This week, I am revisiting my articles on Jamaica from August 10 on ‘Jamaica’s achievements … a mirage?’ and August 17, which posed the questions ‘60 years on: what real progress has Jamaica made? How far are we from 1962?’.

Since then, I have undertaken additional research using United Nations human development indicators, in a further bid to answer my own questions. What I found is that while there has been progress, mostly in social indicators, such as health, education, and housing, Jamaica’s development has not progressed as far as anticipated.

In 2021/22, the Jamaican population is 59 per cent (1,200,000 people) more than it was in 1962. The Statistical Institute’s census will confirm the current population size. Life expectancy is now 75 years, 10 years more than in 1962, and child mortality is 11/1,000 as against 48/1,000 in 1962. These are positive developments, although our main healthcare facilities were built in the colonial period.

In 1962, it was recognised that education played a critical role in development, but access to elementary and secondary schools was inadequate. Tertiary education was limited. The literacy rate was then about 60 per cent. In 2021, it improved to 88 per cent, with higher attendance and much more secondary and tertiary institutions. Yet, many children are leaving secondary schools without required qualifications (STATIN data and Patterson Report).

The housing stock was increasing in the 1960s and continued, but there remains the need for affordable housing.

The unemployment rate in 1962 was 14 per cent and, for 2021, about 10 per cent. Emigration, the source of remittances, has been significant with 28,000 people going mainly to Britain in 1962 and 18, 000 in 2021, most going to the USA.

Regarding gender, in 1962, fewer women were in the formal workforce. In the civil service, women were not long admitted to administrative grades and the barrier to employment of married women was being lifted. In 2021, tables have turned and the civil service was dominated by women, over 65 per cent, and Jamaica has one of the world’s highest levels of women in managerial positions. Gender balance now an issue.

Security is a major problem. In 1962, the homicide rate was 4-7/100,000, while in 2021, it is one of the highest in the world at 50/100,000. While there was concern about the crime rate in 1962, today it is a crisis which contributes to stymieing development.

Of course, the 21st century is the digital age, only imagined in 1962.

IN AN ECONOMIC RUT

Jamaica’s currency in 1962 was the British pound – pound, shillings, and pence (£ s. d.). The currency went to decimal in 1969 (Jamaican dollars and cents). The Jamaican dollar was then strong, J$1 = US$0.77. The Jamaican currency is now greatly devalued (£1 = J$178 & US$ 1 = J$150).

Figures used here are in US dollars and are obtained from the World Bank website and other sources. It is evident to me from my calculations of estimated adjusted gross domestic product (GDP), wages, and prices that the 1962 working population had stronger purchasing power than many employed today.

The GDP, in 1962, was US$778 million, which adjusted for inflation is an estimated US$7 billion, with the per capita income being US$464, adjusted for inflation is US$4,176. A surprise is that in 2021, Jamaica’s GDP is given as US$13.64 billion and the per capita is US$4,587, which is just above the 1962 value. From 1950-1970, Jamaica’s growth rate averaged seven per cent.

In 1962, it was actually 2.4 per cent. From 1972 to 2021, Jamaica’s growth rate averaged just about one per cent with growth stagnating. In 2021, it was 4.6 per cent as Jamaica recovered from a 10 per cent decline in 2020 due to the COVID pandemic. The external, internal and natural shocks (oil crises, recessions, hurricanes, floods, droughts, and financial collapse) are taken into account.

In spending power, in 1962, £1, adjusted for inflation, would be J$3, 204. A patty, then cost about 9 pence at the higher price. £1 could then buy two dozen patties with change. In 2021, a patty cost J$220 and the Jamaican equivalent of a pound (J$3,202) would have bought about one dozen patties.

I am informed that an appointed junior stenographer/typist in the civil service in 1962 was earning £336 per annum, £28 per month, which adjusted for inflation is J$90,000 p.m. in 2021. A junior secretary (SS2) in 2021, at the top of the scale (J$781,231-J$928,638 p.a.), is earning J$77,387 per month. A trained teacher’s basic entry pay in 1962 was £420 p.a., adjusted would be J$112,140 p.m. In 2021, a trained teacher was earning J$108,000 p.m.

GRAVE CONCERN

In international trade, in 1962, Jamaica was exporting bauxite as a major world producer, traditional agricultural commodities, and expanding the tourist industry. Exports of goods and services were 33 per cent of GDP and imports 35 per cent of GDP. In 2021, the mix of Jamaica’s exports has changed, bauxite/alumina and traditional agricultural commodities are less important, and non-traditional exports have increased. Services exports, tourism and business process outsourcing (BPOs), are contributing more to exports.

In 2021, exports of goods and services were 28 per cent of GDP and imports escalated to 47 per cent of GDP. The foreign exchange credit from exports is less and the debit from imports is increasing.

In terms of external debt, in 1962, it was likely less than 70 per cent of GDP. In 2021, it was about 92 per cent of GDP. Jamaica’s debilitating debt problem started in the 1970s rising to 136 per cent of GDP in 2010. Financing gaps are covered by loans. The government now aims to reduce the debt to GDP to 60 per cent by 2027/28.

So, in real terms, Jamaica has not progressed far from 1962 in its development objectives and development is a mirage. With the Planning Institute of Jamaica indicating that many targets of Vision 2030 are outstanding, this should be a grave concern for all of us in these times.

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com