Norris McDonald | Vladimir Putin, mutiny and the ‘crayfish brain madness’

Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has survived a reported 43 assassination attempts, recently faced Wagner’s military force “treacherous mutiny” that collapsed shortly after it started.

But Putin had his one-million-army standing solidly behind him. He had a street force modelled along the lines of Cuba’s Committee for the Defense of the Revolution, which was developed after the Alexie Navalny-led colour revolution attempts.

There is also strong political backing from the nationalist, United Russia political party, and the religious support of the powerful Russian Orthodox Church – it is hard to see any anti-Putin revolt succeeding.

Even the Russian Communist Party gives critical support to Putin because they had many former members being persecuted by the Ukrainian neo-Nazis.

Yevgeny Prigozhin who led this revolt has now fled to Belarus with his egomaniac scheme, burying any political ambitions he may have had.

Given all this, how could any sane person think the Wagner mutiny could have worked?

PUTIN’S LEADERSHIP

Putin has been in power since 1999 and over time has strengthened his political rule. The Russian constitution was changed, instigated by Putin’s supporters to allow his unbridled rule – re-election without term-limits.

Under Putin’s leadership, the country has gained international prestige. This has been considerably enhanced, in recent times, because of his blunt determination in withstanding NATO’s warmongering wrath.

He persistently has a high public opinion poll rating of over 81 per cent, as data from the Levada Center reveal the extent to which the Russian people fully support his leadership.

My friends, given this deep-rooted political support amongst the population, it is truly naïve for anyone to believe that Putin could have been overthrown by the Wagner group.

Russia has been in political transformation and has not only achieved relative stability, but it has gained greater international prestige because of how it has stood up to America and the West.

Meanwhile, more and more countries, including long-standing allies such as Saudi Arabia, among others, are breaking out of the imperialist sphere of interest. Many of these nations are now moving to join BRICS.

BRICS is a newly emerging political economic powerhouse that will soon control over 50 per cent of the total production of the world’s wealth. This group of countries, which now comprise Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, now have over 20 countries seeking membership.

This, my dear friends, is the context in which we must see the Russian political crises and the seeming joy of Western leaders and hypocritical press, titillating at the crazy possibility of Putin being booted from power.

I think it is clearly naïve for anyone to think that this Wagner rebellion could have been successful.

Even if President Putin was to have lost power, do the One Don imperialists really think they would be able to gleefully kill the new assertive spirit of national independence that the potential defeat of NATO was awakening?

And again, what triggered this Prigozhin led-Wagner mutiny?

WAGNER’S BETRAYAL

Self-interest, greed, and political power-lust were Prigozhin’s prime motivation, in my opinion, and that led to the sowing of public discord with his so-called “march for justice” against Russia and the Russian military.

Wagner Private Military Contractor (PMC) has been Russia’s attempt to copy America’s use of groups such as Blackwater to wage war on their behalf.

Prigozhin, the Wagner leader, gained more and more prominence because of the tenacity of his fighters’ role in helping Russia since the 2022 NATO proxy war began.

But Prigozhin, despite the military success, had earned the wrath of the Russian government with his public, social media, megalomanic, publicity stunts.

Russia’s military leader sought to end Prigozhin’s wild antics by bringing Wagner fully under their control.

A new contract was drafted which required all private military groups to function under Russian Defense Ministry. This would be like how Western countries operated with private military contractors such as Blackwater.

With the announcement of the decision by the Russian military to neuter this raging Wagner monster, Prigozhin now knew that the end was near.

“The Russian defense ministry wanted to disband Wagner PMC,” the now clearly disgraced Wagner boss wailed as he went into hiding in Belorussia.

It was this conflict and tension that became central to his so-called rebellion than any claim, or possibility, that he could lead a serious rebellion against Mr Putin.

‘CRAYFISH BRAIN MADNESS’

My friends, a cornered crayfish shows fighting spirit. When backed into a hole, it will snap and fight to the bitter end. Prigozhin’s mentality may have appeared as small as a crayfish, in my opinion, but then the reality that his stunt backfired came as a jolting shock.

Self-seeking glory is a funny thing. It can perhaps lead to what I would call ‘crayfish brain madness’ in which mental small-mindedness is swamped by delusions of grandeur.

Prigozhin’s rise and fall typifies that of the lumpen proletariat – the classes elements of society – who may become extreme wealthy, like drug dons, whose mentality, having been shaped by social depravity, appear unable to change their behaviour.

It was just like the crazy scenario we saw play out in the US Capital on January 6, 2021, when President Donald ‘the Dotard’ Trump’s supporters, white lumpen proletariat, led an insurrection to keep him in office.

Donald ‘the coup plotter’ Trump’s January 2021 ‘Dotard revolution’ could not have succeeded because it lacked military-institutional support and mass popular support.

What is different between the Trump Dotard revolution and Prigozhin’s crazy scheme?

Trump Dotard’s insurrectionists were prepared to die for him, with or without weapons.

Wagner has a well-armed goon squad, but when reality set in, many wanted to die for ‘Mother Russia’ and not for ‘Father Prigozhin’.

The ego crazed Prigozhin, seeing the ‘Hand of God’ or the ‘devil’ writing on the wall, capitulated, lapped his tail and fled to Belarus.

In the final analysis, though, only someone with a crayfish brain could really imagine or believe that this was a serious threat to Putin’s rule.

That is just ‘the bitta truth’!

Norris McDonald is a respiratory therapist, economic journalist, and political analyst. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com