Orville Taylor | How to lose an election

Whichever party wins the next general or local government elections will get my full support, as long as the policies are for the benefit of the Jamaican people. Having grown up in a household, that comprised a father who was a Norman Manley Fabian socialist, a grandmother, who was a diehard Bustamante Labourite, and a mother, who called a spade a shovel, a hoe a hoe and spared no rod when the truth was being violated; being dispassionate, disinterested, and objective, even if not ‘neutral’, is something which has soaked in like two weeks of jerk seasoning marinate.

Moreover, having had a front seat, as my friends were given guns by two political opponents in the late 1970s to the early 1990s, both of whom took oaths to uphold law and law enforcement; I am as difficult to draw out as old bubble gum.

Yet, perhaps it is a requirement for people, who might have taken Neo’s blue pill, to think that they can always maintain the firm support of the public, since they have a strong grip on the election. And in doing so, rather than face reality, they either outrightly attack the messengers or simply do what ostriches are reputed to do; stick their heads in the sand.

Funny, not even these small-brained birds do this; because when they put it in the hole, it is to search for and actually eat food, often with great success.

ADDRESS ROOT CAUSES

What the Government needs to do, if it wants to fend off a ‘rising’ People’s National Party (PNP) that has overtaken it in the polls, is to address the root causes of its slippage and not wag its tongue, merely because it has persons who have mastered the art of self-debating, while focusing on itself.

What has taken place over the last few days, as the reputation of renowned pollster Don Anderson has been challenged, attacked and disrespected in the name of politics, is at best shameless. It is not the first time that a ‘sore loser’ has taken issue with a referee. Just about two years or so ago, one of my mentees and now a representative of the opposition took a road, which I hope he would never ever take again.

Rather than accepting that Anderson’s polls were accurate or at least reasonable, he went straight for the jugular and attempted to make light of the man’s qualifications. That the critic was a PhD and very good at quantitative analysis made absolutely no difference to me. The fact is, using the scientific methodology, that has been more accurate than wrong over the last three decades, Anderson was simply telling the truth. Of course, as fate would have it, the opposition was beaten as if it were a goat thief caught by rural farmers.

My generation recalls the pinpoint accuracy of Professor Carl Stone, who although active for a shorter period, never missed in calling the winner in any election. Yes, despite his impeccable record, Stone himself faced harsh criticism from the PNP ostriches in the lead-up to the 1980 election. In fact, just prior to my beginning my university career, my then future lecturer in research methods, Derek Gordon, conducted his own survey, which gave a glimmer of false hope to the governing PNP.

Well, the only hope was in the adjacent community; because, despite the “150,000 strong can’t be wrong!” in Sam Sharpe Square rally, the PNP’s hope quickly turned into ‘Monas’ and they were sent out to green (Hope) pastures.

ACCEPT REALITY

This failure to accept reality also preceded the PNP’s loss in 2007 and that of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in 2011, when rather than listening to the pollsters and experts, then novitiate Andrew Holness called the election and handed back the country to the PNP.

Based on the historical behaviour of the electorate since 1944, when the first elections were conducted under universal adult suffrage, there is a clear pattern of voting. Whatever the turnout, there is a residual 30 per cent of the voting population, composed of mostly those persons who earn livings from labour, who vote according to what they believe the party has done or is likely to do for the core. One should never forget that both the JLP and the PNP are labour parties, whose gut are the trade unions.

The 1972 elections were lost because the JLP had also lost the support of the working class. This pattern has never failed. Therefore, when party leader prime minister, sociologist/social anthropologist, Edward Seaga, looked at the Stone polls, based on the new voters list, he knew that he had to grab the opportune moment and call the snap election in 1983.

Smart politicians test the waters and then call elections, whether local government or general, whenever the tide is with them. It is for this reason that despite the mouthing and empty chatter, no Parliament has ever approved fixed election dates, because, it exposes them to lose during their vulnerable periods. If the Anderson polls are wrong, then maybe the Government should call both the PNP’s bluff and local government elections at the same time.

However, I have said this multiple times, and Holness himself has respectfully responded to these observations as we shared space in public fora. Observation 1: Lose the working class and you lose the next election; Observation 2: Discredit pollsters and you are likely to be defeated in the election; and Observation 3: appearing to take on the media, institutions of justice and neutral critics, and you suffer ‘electile’ dysfunction when next you attempt to perform in the polls.

This has nothing to do with however hardworking or good the government is or how well it has performed. Perceptions are what fuel voting and other behaviours.

A word to the wise is often sufficient. But then again, there is a difference between being wise and otherwise.

- Dr Orville Taylor is senior lecturer at the Department of Sociology at The University of the West Indies, a radio talk-show host, and author of ‘Broken Promises, Hearts and Pockets’. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and tayloronblackline@hotmail.com.