Gordon Robinson | Poll dancing

One Saturday night after dominoes, the Dunce introduced Gene Autry and me to a nightspot called Queen of Hearts.

He assured us there would be plenty music. We were young and limited in worldly experience so gullibly went along with him. Upon entry, we realised we were in the middle of a Go-Go club featuring scantily clad, exotic pole dancers and an excited audience of mostly dirty old men. We turned to the Dunce in dismay only to hear his standard retort “If a macca mek it jook yu!”

One particular Pole Dancer, stage name Conchita, pretended to take a special interest in me (details still “classified”). My obvious embarrassment resulted in relentless ribbing from Gene Autry ever since and triggered a lifetime dislike of poles.

Oh, also polls. So when parts of PNP’s recently commissioned Panderson Poll were released, I was equally amused at PNP’s attempts at poll dancing and JLP’s embarrassment. It reminded me of that late night long ago at Queen of Hearts. Immediately, JLP called the Poll “fictitious”.

Sigh.

As much as I dislike Polls, I’d never use that word to describe any Poll especially one conducted by Don Anderson whose reputation for competence and integrity is renowned. You may not like his results but they are consistent with method and his methods are transparent. There’s nothing “fictitious” about his Polls. My difficulty is with all polls which, in my opinion, may be useful to pollsters’ clients but useless to the rest of us.

But. They. Are. Not. “Fictitious”!

It wasn’t long before the same JLP trolls who revelled in calling the poll “fictitious”, were lauding the poll when it was revealed (not by PNP at its Press Conference where it danced up and down the poll) that Mark Golding’s “good+very good” ratings dropped over the past four months. Suddenly, the poll’s results were fine and dandy.

So it’s time to take a closer look at the comparative poll ratings. Firstly, I don’t accept this new and different maths that lumps “average” with “good’ and “very good”. That sounds like pandering to me. Average is none of “good”; “very good”; “poor” or “very poor”. It’s (how can I best put this?) “Average”!

So let’s take average out of the equation. Nobody likes vanilla.

Mark Golding’s positive rating (“good”+“very good”) decline from 14.7 per cent (February) to 12.1 per cent (June) has already been beaten to death by JLP Trolls. Interestingly, an RJRGLEANER commissioned Panderson Poll in February 2018 found Peter Phillips positive rating at 16 per cent. By 2019, Rise United, citing polls as one rationale, challenged Phillips for PNP Leadership.

Last Thursday, Don Anderson told Morning Agenda that, in February, PNP’s “very good” rating was 6.1 per cent. By June it plummeted to 4.1 per cent. PNP’s “good” February rating was 8.3 per cent; down to 6.7 per cent in June. So PNP’s overall positive rating in February (14.4 per cent) fell to 10.8 per cent in four months despite unrelenting campaigning and several Government missteps.

I’ll let regular “political analysts” squabble over whether Mark’s positive rating drop from 14.7-12.1 per cent (18 per cent depreciation) is better or worse than PNP’s from 14.4-10.8 per cent (25 per cent depreciation). Either way, it’s not a good look for PNP.

Anderson also told Morning Agenda that Government’s positive rating in February was 22.3 per cent (PNP 14.4 per cent) and 19.9 per cent in June (PNP 10.8 per cent) – a 11 per cent depreciation (PNP depreciated 25 per cent). JLP’s good rating increased from 13 per cent to 14.4 per cent; it’s very good rating fell from 9.3 per cent to 5.5 per cent.

This simpleton concludes Government’s several missteps only lowered the needle on its positive performance perception from “very good” to “good”.

Government’s negative February rating was 44.3 per cent (16.2 per cent poor; 28.1 per cent very poor); then 45.1 per cent in June (18 per cent poor; 27.1 per cent very poor). Opposition’s negative February rating was 51.7 per cent; then 49.4 per cent in June. PNP’s “very poor”, 29.2 per cent (February) then 21.2 per cent (June), shifted (as did JLP’s) to “poor” but more significantly. No movement was shown from negative to positive.

The results scream “no better herring; no better barrel”. There’s nothing for PNP to celebrate. Voter intention numbers don’t correspond to performance metrics. It seems disgruntled Comrades feel no warmer towards Rise United but want to return to power. It’s left to be seen how many of them actually visit the polls after Government completes long outstanding projects and passes an election budget increasing the income tax threshold.

One last thing (said Lieutenant Colombo). A five per cent lead is within the Poll’s plus or minus three per cent margin of error. If PNP voter intention scores 30 per cent the margin of error translates that to 27-33 per cent range. If JLP scores 25 per cent then its range is 22-28 per cent.

Peace and Love.

Gordon Robinson is an attorney-at-law. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com