Michael Abrahams | The JLP, the PNP and the poll

Last week, the People’s National Party (PNP) released the findings of a Don Anderson poll they commissioned that found that if an election were called today, 30.2 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the PNP. In comparison, 25 per cent would vote for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). It also showed that 47.6 per cent of Jamaicans are against another JLP term, versus 31.6 per cent who would support it, and 20.8 per cent who are unsure.

The JLP’s response to the poll’s results was swift and exemplified why their popularity has waned. It was unnecessarily nasty and displayed the arrogance and disingenuity Jamaicans have become weary of. For example, they rejected the poll findings as “fictitious and contrived” without providing evidence to support their claim. They also claimed that their “internal poll findings show the Government and the Jamaica Labour Party in a continued strong and leading position”, but have not shared their findings. (Maybe it is in ‘draft’ form, like the document used to guide the recently implemented salary hikes we are not allowed to see). They also accused the PNP of “self-serving and vulgar manipulations”.

I have no reason to doubt the findings of the poll. The JLP’s popularity has definitely slipped. Since being in power, three ministers have been relieved of their portfolios because of alleged wrongdoing. One was removed from two ministries, and another was arrested and charged. The JLP Government’s shenanigans have kept the auditor general, the contractor general, and the director of corruption prosecution at the Integrity Commission very busy. The Holness administration has lost its shine. Jamaicans openly express disappointment with him and his crew. His devolution from ‘Brogad’ to ‘Anju’ says it all. Broken election promises and the arrogance of him and his administration have turned off and offended many. They have given the Integrity Commission the middle finger by refusing to sign its Code of Conduct. This is not a good sign. Increasingly, I hear people who identify as Labourites admitting they are disgusted with their party.

INCONVENIENT TRUTH

However, the PNP must face an inconvenient truth. As party member Raymond Pryce observed, people are moving away from the JLP but are not flocking towards the PNP. The PNP has failed miserably to capitalise on the JLP’s failures and shortcomings. With the growing dissatisfaction being expressed with the Government, the PNP should be much further ahead. When the Jamaican people turn away from the Government and look towards the Opposition, they do not like what they see there, either.

What they see is an ununified and disorganised circus. Opportunity after opportunity has been missed by the Opposition to step up to the plate. For example, following the recent announcement of the salary hikes of the political directorate, they could have symbolically agreed to take even a slight pay cut to show solidarity with civil servants such as teachers, who felt slighted by the Government. But they did not. Only their leader, Mark Golding, decided to take less, and gave away some of his salary to charity.

This takes us to another point: the party members are clearly not all on the same page. Golding is the only one calling to “Roll it back”. The others are not with him. One party stalwart, Lisa Hanna, even wrote an article defending the salary hikes. Jamaicans see this and wonder what the hell is happening in the party. Why the different narratives?

The Jamaican public sees contentious disagreements regarding candidate selection in several constituencies. They see the kerfuffle over Dr Alfred Dawes’ introduction into St Catherine South Eastern, with the constituency office being on fire on two occasions and Dawes declaring that death threats were made against him and his family. They see discomfort during the voting process in South East St Ann. They see Kern Spencer being put up as a candidate in St Elizabeth North East and wonder why the party leadership would want to give a platform to someone with such a tainted past. They see PNP councillors speaking out against Ian Hayles running in Western Westmoreland. They see disgruntled ex-members of the party continually firing salvos at the party leader.

POPULAR MEMBERS

Two of the most popular members of the party are Lisa Hanna and Damion Crawford. They have many fans among the Jamaican populace, but either the leadership has decided to backbench them or they have backbenched themselves. Social commentators, bloggers and vloggers are calling out the Government for their missteps more vociferously than the Opposition is, and people are wondering why. From retired party stalwarts to activists on the ground, many Comrades are scratching and shaking their heads and face-palming at some of the decisions being made by the party leadership. For many reasons, the party is not looking like an attractive alternative. Power struggles, fighting factions and inept communications/PR machinery are what the Jamaican public sees. As someone opined to me recently, “How can I have confidence in them organising the country if they cannot organise themselves?”

It is doubtful that the poll was fraudulent, as the JLP claimed. After all, it showed Golding’s popularity lagging behind Holness at 53.2 per cent to 54.5 per cent, respectively. Would a ‘contrived’ poll organised by the PNP show their leader’s popularity less than his opponent’s? Also, Don Anderson is a respected pollster. It is doubtful that he would put his reputation on the line to please the PNP.

In the poll results, I see a duel between an arrogant Government and a disorganised Opposition. If both parties continue on their trajectories, Jamaica is in trouble.

Michael Abrahams is an obstetrician and gynaecologist, social commentator and human-rights advocate. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and michabe_1999@hotmail.com, or follow him on Twitter @mikeyabrahams.