Peter Espeut | Breaking the statistical dead heat

I can understand the reluctance of pollster Don Anderson to declare positively that his poll findings over the last few months indicate a trend against the incumbent Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) government, and in favour of the opposition People’s National Party (PNP); after all, the last few poll findings show the PNP and the JLP in a statistical dead heat, within in the margin of error.

The March 2023 Don Anderson Poll (with a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent) found that if an election were called then, 28.1 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the PNP, while 27.9 per cent would vote for the JLP, within the margin of error. The March 2023 Anderson poll findings were a statistical dead heat.

The June 2023 Don Anderson Poll (with the same margin of error) found that if an election were called then, 30.2 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the PNP, while 25 per cent would vote for the JLP. Should the PNP reality be three per cent lower it would be at 25.2 per cent, and should the JLP reality is three per cent higher it would be at 28 per cent. The fact is that in absolute terms, the June 2023 Anderson poll findings were a statistical dead heat.

But absolute terms aside, trend analysis indicates that public opinion is shifting away from the JLP and towards the PNP.

Should a couple of further polls confirm the trend, then it should be clear – even to the deepest sceptic – that the PNP should win Jamaica’s next general election, due by September 2025.

Should the trend hold, the results of the local government elections due in six months time (February 2024) should be a landslide in favour of the PNP. With the wisdom of hindsight the government may rue its decision to postpone them from earlier this year.

VOTING AGAINST JLP

But make no mistake: in both local and general elections, Jamaicans will not be voting for the PNP, but against the JLP. The PNP has not given the electorate any reason to vote for them, while the JLP has given Jamaicans so many reasons to vote them out!

In these circumstances, there will be little enthusiasm in voting for the PNP, because the public does not know what they stand for. The PNP is simply standing by watching the JLP make egregious mistakes which will force well-thinking Jamaicans to vote against them, or to abstain from voting altogether!

This scenario should make the PNP uncomfortable. They should wish Jamaicans to vote FOR them, rather than just against the JLP; for should the conscientious voter choose to abstain, the PNP will be no better off.

Below are some positions the PNP could be taking which would earn them public support and break the statistical dead heat:

• Should we win the next general election, a PNP government would open up the constitutional reform process. We will live-stream all meetings of the Constitutional Reform Commission, and publish all the minutes unredacted. We will hold genuine public consultations to hear from you what you really want. We will conduct public education so Jamaicans can be aware of the alternatives.

• Should we win the next general election, a PNP government would introduce a constitutional amendment making it unlawful for any ruling party to ram through a constitutional amendment in one day without public discussion and debate.

• Should we win the next general election, a PNP government would remove the discretion of the minister of finance to raise his salary and the salaries of other politicians; arrangements will be put in place for increases in the salaries of politicians to be dealt with at arm’s length by an independent committee.

• Should we win the next general election, a PNP government would strengthen the Integrity Commission by removing the “gag clause”, and by making the declarations of assets by politicians public like in other western democracies.

• Should we win the next general election, a PNP government would require a public register of political donations to be kept like in other Western democracies.

• Should we win the next general election, a PNP government would make public all contracts with the government by local and overseas entities, like in other Western democracies.

• Should we win the next general election, a PNP government would be intolerant of corruption, including conflicts of interest, and will criminalise breaches of procurement guidelines, nepotism and cronyism.

• Should we win the next general election, a PNP government would commit to conserve Jamaica’s natural environment by establishing a stand-alone Ministry of the Environment free from conflicts of interest by being married to potentially environmentally damaging portfolios, like job creation.

• Should we win the next general election, a PNP government would remove the monarchical power of ministers to overturn the technical decisions of industry experts.

• Should we win the next general election, a PNP government would improve the quality of government primary schools, bringing them to the academic level of private preparatory schools.

• Should we win the next general election, a PNP government would implement community housing renewal to eliminate political garrisons and the gangs associated with them.

INCREASE SUPPORT

Should the PNP – or any political party – publicly identify itself with the above policy positions, its support among well-thinking Jamaicans should increase. The failure of political parties to hold the above positions makes them part of the political problem Jamaica needs to solve.

The fact that no political party is prepared to commit itself to end corruption, and to take steps to end institutional inequality, or to conserve Jamaica’s natural environment, encourages Jamaicans to believe that they are all the same, and there is no reason to support one over the other, or even to vote at all.

Unless some patriot and potential national hero steps out and sets the nation on a positive path, Jamaica seems destined to perpetually play political musical chairs, voting out successive self-serving parties.

Peter Espeut is a sociologist and development scientist. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com