Editorial | Building for earthquakes

Jamaica again dodged the bullet. Monday’s 5.6-magnitude earthquake, whose epicentre was 10 kilometres south of the town of Buff Bay in the eastern parish of Portland, caused only minor damage, and no injuries.

But for the five or so seconds that the earth rumbled and shook, it caused a lot of fear. Based on their anecdotal telling, for many Jamaicans it was the most intense earthquake they have ever felt, notwithstanding the magnitude 7.3 and 7.2 quakes of August 2021 and February 2020, respectively, according to data on the website of the Earthquake Unit of The University of the West Indies (UWI), Mona.

But unlike Monday’s quake, which occurred on land, the epicentre of those more powerful ones were at sea – the latter in the Cayman Ridge, between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands; and the former, 125 kilometres northeast of the coastal town of Lucea, Hanover, in northwestern Jamaica.

In-between those quakes and Monday’s event, Jamaica has endured a number of moderate shakes. But this latest quake, and the few minor trembles that have followed it, appear to have concentrated minds, which hopefully leads to a fulsome discussion of Jamaica’s planning and preparedness for the island’s next really big earthquake. The question, the experts say, is not if such a quake will occur. What is unresolved is the when.

Jamaica’s last really devastating earthquake was 116 years ago, in 1907. Seismologists estimate that it registered 9.5 on the Richter scale. What is known for sure is that it caused widespread destruction, especially in Kingston, and killed more than 1,000 people. And for a long time afterwards it made existence hellish for tens of thousands of people.

PREPARING FOR THE BIG ONE

Fundamentally, there are two ways to prepare for the inevitable Big One, and for earthquakes in general: knowing what to do when they occur; and insofar as possible, ensure that our buildings are sufficiently resilient to withstand their shocks.

The first of these is the easier bit – a continuous programme of public education, as one of the elements in the island’s disaster preparedness and mitigation project.

In the aftermath of the earthquakes in Turkey and Syria in February that killed many tens of thousands of people, this newspaper reminded the authorities of the need for this ongoing education campaign. We followed up in April, in the aftermath of a 4.9-magnitude quake whose epicentre was 17 kilometres northwest of Yallahs, St Thomas, in the island’s southeast.

We cannot claim that the authorities were, or have been, unresponsive. However, we do feel that the matter has not been approached with the robustness and urgency that it deserves. Which, in the face of what happened on Monday, must change.

Even more critically, though, is the need for the following: a review of Jamaica’s building laws and regulations; and the stress-testing and compliance audit of existing buildings to ensure that they can withstand earthquakes – as have been advocated by UWI’s seismologist Professor Simon Mitchell, and the architect and public policy campaigner Patricia Green.

Jamaica passed a new building law in 2018, but many of the regulations that should underpin the legislation are not in place. At the same time, new development orders have come into force, which increased the habitable rooms allowed on a portion of land.

The upshot is that old suburban bungalows are increasingly being supplanted by medium- and high-rise apartment buildings and commercial complexes.

The concern here is not whether that of itself is a good or bad thing, but the seeming Wild West fashion with which much of these developments have proceeded. Often, construction begins in defiance, or ahead of changes to restrictive covenants. Regulatory agencies appear willing to ignore or bend rules for developers.

HELTER-SKELTER APPROACH

Further, as has been shown in court cases brought by citizens, and in investigations by the anti-corruption body, the Integrity Commission, these agencies tend to be exceedingly bad at policing the rules they themselves set. So, developers may proceed with their variances unchecked.

This helter-skelter approach to regulatory oversight was captured by High Court Justice Natalie Hart-Hines in a damning admonition of the Kingston and St Andrew Municipal Corporation (KSAMC), the capital’s local government, and the National Environment and Planning Agency (NEPA) for how they did their jobs. Justice Hart-Hines quoted from Shakespeare’s Hamlet: “Tis an unweeded garden that grows to seed. Things rank and gross in nature.”

In Turkey, the kind of failure to which Justice Hart-Hines referred contributed to a great loss of lives in February’s earthquake. During that country’s construction boom, which, ironically, was heralded by a previous earthquake, many regulators cut corners – some for illicit enrichment – in approving high-rise buildings. Many promptly crashed during the earthquake. They were either badly engineered or improperly built, or used too little or inferior materials.

We, of course, do not expect this to be the case in Jamaica. If there are ill-constructed buildings, it would certainly not be the result of corruption.

Nonetheless, it cannot hurt to conduct an extensive stress-testing, or to proceed with a compliance inventory of the new high-rises, as well as older structures, to determine survivability if a major earthquake struck. It would also be sensible, with the benefit of experience, to have a look at the Building Act.