Elizabeth Morgan | Guyana, Venezuela, fossil fuels, and the COP28 outcome

The focus over the last few days has been on the outcome of the December 14 meeting at Argyle in St Vincent and the Grenadines between President Dr Mohamed Irfaan Ali of Guyana and President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela.

A lot has been written about this meeting brokered by Prime Minister Ralph Gonazales of St Vincent and the Grenadines as president pro tempore of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) and as a member of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA).

The main outcome recorded in the Argyle Declaration is that both Venezuela and Guyana agreed that they would not, directly or indirectly, threaten or use force against one another in any circumstances, including those consequential to any existing controversies between them. This is welcomed as we enter the Christmas season of peace on earth, goodwill towards all people.

I think we are all clear that the aggressor in this matter has been Venezuela. The status quo remains as Venezuela continues to claim two-thirds of Guyana, continues to have its new maps incorporating Essequibo, and new policy measures related to that region. Venezuela also refuses to accept the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in resolving this matter. Venezuela’s position remained clear in information from Caracas released on the day after. Guyana’s position remains clear also, that the matter must be resolved through international law in the ICJ.

I do hope that the Maduro administration will keep their word and refrain from further threatening actions in the next three months leading to the proposed meeting in Brazil. Guyana needs to remain vigilant and insist that CELAC, CARICOM, and others in this hemisphere involved in this matter take account of their interest. These border issues need to be resolved in accordance with international law once and for all.

It has been noted by many commentators that the desire for natural resources and wealth, particularly the desire for fossil fuels, specifically oil and gas, plays an important role in this Venezuela-Guyana border matter. In my article of December 6, I queried, ‘Will climate change actually eliminate fossil fuels and their economic importance?”.

This brings me to the outcome of COP28, which concluded in the United Arab Emirates on December 12.

GUYANA ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND CARBON REDUCTION

President Ali led Guyana’s delegation to COP28. His visit had two purposes – first, to meet with other heads of state and government to sensitise them to Guyana’s concerns about the border controversy with Venezuela; and, second, to outline Guyana’s policy position on climate change, which he did in his address to the Climate Action Summit on December 1.

The President told the summit that “COP28 will not achieve the desired objectives of definitively putting our planet on a net zero trajectory if we continue to address this matter in a doctrinarian way, ignoring the current realities.”

He noted that the growth in demand for energy will be coming from developing and emerging economies which are energy-poor, and that it is a fact that growth in renewable energy sources will not meet the demand in the near future. If the COP debate continues to be framed between those calling for no cuts in fossil fuel production, and those calling for an end to fossil fuels, then there will be continuing failure to achieve a viable outcome which will reduce carbon emissions, while giving the world the energy it needs to grow and prosper.

For President Ali, to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, a combination of measures would be required, such as reducing fossil fuel production; removing large polluters from the supply chain; removing subsidies; providing incentives for renewable energy production; addressing the demand for energy; upscaling technology for reducing carbon; and reducing deforestation and land degradation.

Guyana has specific interest in maintaining and sustainably using tropical forests, of which it has a lot, including in Essequibo. Guyana wants to continue being a world leader in aligning food, energy, and climate securities, and in playing its part in bringing climate stability within reach. So, Guyana, now as an oil producer, wants to recognise the need to reduce carbon and address climate change, hopefully, also recognising that there is a limit to exploiting fossil fuels.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, it seems that positions on addressing climate change and carbon reduction were divided.

COP28 OUTCOME – TRANSITIONING FROM FOSSIL FUELS

COP28 concluded with the adoption of the ‘UAE Consensus’, which noted that although there was some progress, global greenhouse gas emission targets remain off track. The UAE Consensus has a compromise position calling on parties to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050”.

So, parties actually agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. Others would have liked a much stronger commitment to phasing out fossil fuels as a matter of urgency. The UAE Consensus encourages parties to submit ambitious, economy-wide, emission-reduction targets up to 2025. This would be more in line with Guyana’s position, it seems.

Among other things, the consensus articulates a new specific target to triple renewable energy sources and double energy efficiency by 2030. It also aims to build momentum towards a new architecture for climate finance. There were some further commitments on food security, forest and land use.

So, although fossil fuel producers are aiming to delay the process, another step was made towards reducing the reliance on them and their economic importance. It raised the need to invest more in renewable energy sources. So, while border conflicts remain important and create serious insecurity in countries, for their governments and peoples, where resources desired are concerned, particularly fossil fuels, we also should consider what their future may be.

Best wishes for the Christmas – let peace and goodwill reign!

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.