Elizabeth Morgan | The 2024 trade and economic agenda

With the close of 2023, the global economic recovery has been better than expected for many countries, but it is still below par. A war is ongoing in Ukraine; a troubling war developed in the Gaza Strip; there is tension not to be ignored between Venezuela and Guyana; concerns about climate change and use of fossil fuels are deepening; prices keep rising; and concerns about governance, leadership and democracy.

We are praying that 2024 will be a better year, but, realistically, there is reason to doubt. The year has not started on such a bright note.

PROJECTED GROWTH OUTLOOK

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2023 reported that economic activity has slowed but not stalled. Growth remained slow and uneven, with widening divergences. The IMF described the global economy as “limping along, not sprinting”. It projected that world economic growth would slow from 2022’s 3.5 per cent to three per cent in 2023 and to 2.9 per cent in 2024, remaining well below the historical average of 3.8 per cent. The breakout sees real growth projected in major advanced economies slowing to 1.4 per cent, and in emerging and developing economies stabilising at four per cent. Fairly high growth is being projected in Asia.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, the IMF projected real growth at 2.3 per cent overall in 2024. The percentage growth projections for CARICOM countries are: Antigua and Barbuda 5.4; The Bahamas 1.8; Barbados 3.9; Belize 3; Dominica 4.6; Grenada 3.8; Guyana 26.6; Haiti 1.4; Jamaica 1.8; Suriname 3.3; and Trinidad and Tobago 2.2. Except for Suriname and Dominica, these are projected moderate declines from 2023. Jamaica’s figure seems to have reverted to previous low pre-COVID ranges.

The IMF points out that for higher long-term growth to be achieved, reform is needed at national and global levels. In their view, this would be better achieved through multilateral cooperation in bodies such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), and through transformation to a green economy. For them, there is need to restore trust in rules-based multilateral frameworks that enhance transparency and policy certainty. A robust global financial safety net with a well-resourced IMF at its centre is essential.

SCHEDULED MEETINGS

To continue and further discussions at the multilateral level, the year will start as customary with the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 15-19, under the theme ‘Rebuilding Trust’. This fits with the IMF’s viewpoint. It is stated that this year’s meeting of government officials and heads of international organisations, businesses, and civil society will provide a crucial space to focus on the fundamental principles driving trust, including transparency, consistency, and accountability. This meeting will provide an overview of the economic outlook for 2024.

Following this forum will be the 13th WTO Ministerial Conference to be held in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, February 26-29. The meeting will review the functioning of the multilateral trading system and establish the work programme for the next two years. There is a lot of unfinished business at the WTO – reform, development, dispute settlement, trade negotiations including the agreement on fisheries subsidies, trade and environment including climate change, trade facilitation, and the list goes on.

On climate change, COP29 is proposed to be held November 11-24 in Baku, Azerbaijan. On the environment, the United Nations Conference on Biodiversity (COP16) is to be held in Colombia, October 21 to November 1.

The UN High Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development will be held in July. Of course, there will be the usual UN General Assembly meetings in September.

The 16th BRICS Summit is scheduled to be held in Russia in October.

The regular meetings between the Organization of African, Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS) and the European Union (EU) are now expected to be held under the Samoa Agreement which will be applied provisionally by the signatories.

At the hemispheric level, the 8th Summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) will be held in St Vincent and the Grenadines in March. St Vincent and the Grenadines, it will be recalled, is the pro tempore president of CELAC and brokered the Argyle meeting between Venezuela and Guyana.

At the regional level, Guyana has assumed the chair of CARICOM from January to June. The 46th Regular Conference of the CARICOM Heads will be held there in February. Note that Guyana also began its two-year term on the UN Security Council on January 1.

The 47th Session of the CARICOM Heads will be held in Grenada in July as that country assumes the chairmanship. CARICOM Council meetings, such as the Council for Foreign and Community Relations (COFCOR) and the Council for Trade and Economic Development (COTED) will be held as usually scheduled.

YEAR OF SIGNIFICANT ELECTIONS

As I look at the economic outlook for 2024 and the scheduled global and regional meetings aimed at addressing the many global crises, I must, like others, point out that 2024 is a year of significant elections around the globe which could have far-reaching implications for addressing these crises depending on their outcomes. We need to pay attention to these elections which are in the following countries/regions/groups: United States (Presidential and Congressional); European Union (parliamentary as well as in individual countries); United Kingdom (UK); Ukraine; India, Russia, South Africa; Taiwan; Pakistan; Indonesia; Mexico; and Venezuela.

In the Caribbean, the Dominican Republic is scheduled to have elections in May/June. In CARICOM, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago are due to have general elections in 2025, but these could be called in 2024 depending on the political and economic situations in the countries. A similar situation exists in the UK.

This year should be another one of breaking news and cliff-hangers as the international community continues to grapple with multiple crises.

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.