Norris McDonald | Ramaphosa, Malema and South Africa 2024 election predictions

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will face an extremely tough, upcoming February 3-4 general elections. There is a serious threat that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) may lose its tight post-apartheid 1994 grip on political power.

All eyes are on Julius Malema of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), who, in just 10 years, has become a serious political force.

Malema’s EFF now holds 44 seats in South Africa’s 400-member parliament, and there are rising expectations that his party may grab a large chunk of seats in the upcoming elections.

THE YOUTH VOTE

The youth vote is going to be very important in determining the upcoming elections, and the political electoral map is in the EFF’s favour.

Roughly 10 million of the new voters signed up are in the age groups of 18-29 and 30-39, the South African Electoral Commission says. Many of these young people are disillusioned with life and the general direction and performance of the ANC government.

In 2004, the ANC share of the national vote was 69.7 per cent. But the party has been steadily losing political support. Now, 20 years later, the ANC’s potential electoral support is down to an expected 37 per cent share of the 2024 vote, data from the Mail and Guardian newspaper said.

This is extremely bad.

The election has generated a lot of excitement, with Julius Malema’s EFF expected to do well. This will be a big blow to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s election prospects. Political demographics favour the EFF over the ANC. It has been changing with a young post-apartheid generation planning to flex their political muscles in the upcoming elections.

Why is the ANC in trouble?

LACK OF ECONOMIC PROGRESS

Since 1994, when they first came to power, the ANC has been promising “to build a democratic society” in which the South African black people will “get jobs, housing and education”.

Thirty years later, the ANC have not kept their promises. South Africa today has one of the highest rates of youth unemployment in the world, with 61 per cent of young people between age 18 and 24 unemployed.

Overall, the unemployment rate is said to be a staggering 31 per cent. This means that 24 million people out of South Africa’s population of 60 million people are unemployed.

Real economic growth, measured as gross domestic products, “is projected to fall to 0.1 per cent in 2023 from two per cent in 2022,” the international policy analyst STRATFOR says.

This is a truly terrible economic performance. According to STRATFOR, it represents a dismal economic growth rate “averaging 1.4 per cent between 2010 and 2022”.

One in four South Africans who graduate with a degree cannot get a job. The basic reality of all this is, South Africa has been stuck in ‘a poverty-lack of economic development trap’. This is a situation in which declining economic growth co-exists with rising national public debt. Then there is the issue of rampant corruption that has thrived under the ANC.

POLITICAL CORRUPTION

Given the political failures of the ANC, South Africans have become increasingly angry at the political nepotism – sheer outright corruption – inept government and their failure to deliver on their promises.

“Corruption has enriched the ANC leaders and their business allies – black and white South Africans, as well as foreigners,” The New York Times explains.

This is a big disappointment, that South Africa under the ANC have not lived up to the hopes and aspirations of its people.

Tens of billions of public funds were reportedly siphoned off, even as the state’s asset were sold for little or nothing based on bribes and political kickbacks.

Another key problem that facilitated the rise in nepotism and corruption is the self-advancement of the ANC leadership in the 1994 post-apartheid era.

The ANC leaders got board seats on corporations and in the gold and diamond mines and other entities in the post-apartheid era. But there has been no attempt to implement any form of worker-participation or share-ownership model.

This would have allowed workers who suffered economic injustice under apartheid, or their offspring, to get economic benefits in the ‘new South Africa’. Without a doubt, this has been one of the key failures of the ANC political leadership.

They took care of themselves, families and friends, but failed to solve the economic inequities of the apartheid state under which millions of black workers suffered injustices.

Driven by the purpose of unjust enrichment and self-advancement, black South Africans have become increasingly angry at the ANC. Corruption, ineptitude and failed promises now have the ANC facing extremely stiff competition from the Economic Freedom Fighters.

By challenging the ANC on many of these issues, the EFF has grown as a major political opposition force.

ELECTION PREDICTIONS

We will have to wait and see if the EFF rosy predictions come to fruition. The other political factions, including the Democratic Alliance (DA), may grab 25 per cent of the electorate vote.

This is truly shocking for the political party of Nelson and Winnie Mandela. This is the challenge the ANC faces. They no longer have the political goodwill of being the party that transferred South Africa to a black majority country.

Both the Democratic Alliance and Malema’s EFF are expected to draw votes from the ANC.

In terms of voter intentions in the upcoming February 2024 elections, we can expect to see the ANC perhaps lose some seats, but not necessary lose political power.

The EFF support is expected to jump from 25 per cent to 32 per cent which, when compared with that of the ANC, puts them in a position to either be in a power-sharing arrangement or “become the new government”, as Malema says.

Given the political uncertainties and voting trends, one may not know how this election may turn out. But one thing we can expect is that the EFF may definitely become a stronger political party, and will be better positioned to keep pushing their advocacy for a better life for black South Africans.

That is just the ‘bitta’ truth.

Norris McDonald is an economic journalist, political analyst, and respiratory therapist. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and miaminorris@yahoo.com.