Elizabeth Morgan | 48th CARICOM Heads Conference: Addressing current geopolitical issues

THE 48TH CARICOM Heads of Government Conference starts today, Wednesday, February 19, in Bridgetown, Barbados. The conference is being hosted and chaired by the Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley. As usual, there is a very heavy agenda. A key item should be the current geopolitical issues arising since Donald Trump became the USA’s 47th president on January 20.

CARICOM/US RELATIONS

The CARICOM/US relationship is governed by several legal instruments, such as the Caribbean Basin Initiative, which includes the Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act and the Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act. There is also the US/Caribbean Trade and Investment Agreement, and the 2016 US/Caribbean Strategic Engagement Act.

As we all know, the USA is the major trade partner of all CARICOM Member States. In 2023, CARICOM imported approximately US$17.24 billion in goods from the USA and exported US$10.09 billion. The USA has a surplus with the region of US$7.06 billion. In 2024, the US maintained a significant trade surplus with Jamaica and The Bahamas, while having deficits with Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago. The 2024 figures should still reflect a regional surplus for the USA.

Tourism accounts for most of the services trade between the USA and CARICOM states. Most visitors are from the USA. An estimated 3.5 million US visitors came into CARICOM countries during 2023.

In investments, US firms are represented in the CARICOM region in the energy and services sectors.

CARICOM not only trades with the USA, but collaborates with the country in security, including inflow of illegal guns, immigration, health, energy, and disaster management.

Over three million non-Hispanic Caribbean nationals are estimated to be living in the USA. The USA is thus the largest source of remittance flows into the CARICOM region.

ISSUES ARISING FROM RECENT US ACTIONS OF IMPORTANCE TO CARICOM

1. Trade – The proposal to impose or increase tariffs on all countries exporting goods into the USA. Trump has requested a review of all bilateral trade with the USA to determine the level of tariff reciprocity. This could mean that the USA could demand reciprocal treatment where tariffs are higher on US exported goods than those applied by the US on imported goods. The study is to be concluded by April 1. It appears that existing trade arrangements may not count for President Trump to whom international trade laws seem to have little relevance.

With his emphasis on protectionism, it is evident that Trump and his administration have little regard for the rules and regulations of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Note that tariffs are bound in the WTO and require negotiations to adjust them, outside of free trade agreements or other approved arrangements. The USA has already crippled the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism.

2. Overseas Development Assistance – This was addressed in last week’s article. The USAID is being dismantled and US aid has been frozen for 90 days.

3. Health – The USA is withdrawing from the World Health Organization, and given their contributions, this withdrawal could have far-reaching implications.

4. Climate change and climate finance – The US has taken action to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords. The Trump administration has rejected climate change science and is intent on increasing the mining of fossil fuels and reversing green policies and regulations. The USA may not be involved in further reducing carbon emissions and in climate finance.

5. United Nations – The Trump Administration has initiated a review of the USA’s membership in and financing of the UN system. The USA is a permanent member of the Security Council having a veto. There are several important peace and security issues in the UN – Ukraine – with peace negotiations being initiated without its involvement; Israel/Palestine – a proposal to relocate the people of Gaza, which violates relevant UN resolutions; and Haiti’s peace-keeping operations, already impacted by reduced aid.

There are now proposals from a US administration to acquire Greenland by force if necessary; to annex Canada through economic coercion; and to retake the Panama Canal. These proposals violate the principles of the UN Charter. The US would now be the aggressor breaching UN principles on maintaining global peace and security, and the territorial integrity of nations.

6. Bilateral relations –The emerging relations between the USA and China, and USA and Russia are ones to take into account given the presence of China and Russia in the region. The US position on Cuba can be expected to harden under US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.

7. International meetings – In engaging the international community, recall that the US Foreign Secretary is not attending the G20 Foreign Ministers Meeting (February 20-21) in South Africa, protesting discrimination against white South Africans. Depending on how relations with South Africa unfolds, President Trump may not be attending the G20 Summit in November. The G7 Summit will be held in June in Alberta, Canada, which President Trump has threatened to make the US’ 51st state. There is also the UN General Assembly in September in New York.

CARICOM AND THE RULE OF INTERNATIONAL LAW

CARICOM, a region of small states, has supported international law and order. On becoming independent, all CARICOM countries joined the UN where they had a voice in global matters and their interests could be protected. The UN Secretary General is a guest at this CARICOM Heads.

The Trump administration is attempting to further undermine the post-World War 2 global multilateral system of law and order, which the USA helped to establish and maintain.

In this global system, CARICOM Member States will find themselves needing to take decisions on very important issues which could pit them against the Trump administration.

CARICOM UNITY

There have been two articles in this column on CARICOM Member States and foreign policy coordination. In January 2020, the article addressed ‘Foreign policy in CARICOM: pursuing national development benefits’, and that of January 2024, addressed ‘Foreign policy in CARICOM: principled or transactional’. One assumes that the Council for Foreign and Community Relations and the Council for Trade and Economic Development met to consider current issues and advise the Heads.

CARICOM is not required under the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas to have a unified common position in foreign policy matters. In this situation, however, it is hoped that the region can strategise and be able to speak with one voice in its approach to US proposals and in the relevant multilateral fora. CARICOM is the first body in which a strong alliance has to be forged.

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com