Elizabeth Morgan | Canada looking to the future

OVER THE last six months, Canada has attracted more local media attention. For the English-speaking CARICOM countries, Canada is a fellow member of the Commonwealth and a key trading partner in goods and services. It is home to a significant CARICOM diaspora, including from Haiti.

Canada has been in the news since Donald Trump won the US presidential elections in November 2024 and embarked on his tariffs mission. He was quick to sideline the US, Mexico, Canada (trade) Agreement, which he insisted on negotiating in his first term and signed as a great agreement. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau travelled to Mar-a-Lago in November 2024 to discuss the impact of tariffs on his country. It was then that President Trump started talking about Canada as the US 51st state and referring to PM Trudeau as Governor Trudeau, thus making news. Prior to this, the main reporting on Canada here had been about the farm work programme and immigrant visas.

CHANGE IN CANADA

A lot has happened in Canada since then. Canadians resented President Trump’s annexation threat and imposition of new tariffs. Canadians experienced a surge of nationalism.

In a federal election year, elections were due in Canada in October 2025, the Liberal Party, led by Trudeau had lost ground to the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Marcel Poilievre. As Canadians emerged from the pandemic, they were impacted by the various global geopolitical and economic crises, and facing domestic economic gales, higher cost of living, lack of affordable housing, increasing numbers of immigrants, and a faltering growth rate. Canadians were falling out of love with the Liberal Trudeau administration, which had been in office for nearly 10 years. The Conservatives were climbing in the polls on a clear path to election victory led by Poilievre, who could have been described as a version of Donald Trump.

Well, things changed rapidly after that quite consequential Mar-a-lago meeting. Canadians were deeply offended by Trump’s continuing threat to their sovereignty. With the internal political tide moving against him, in January, Prime Minister Trudeau announced his intention to resign. Entered newcomer, the former Governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, Mark Carney, who contended for the position of leader of the Liberal Party. On March 9, he had a resounding victory with his campaign slogan “Canada Strong”. Some powerful patriot speeches were made at the Liberal Party conference by outgoing leader, Justin Trudeau, former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien (1993-2003), and by Carney himself.

Carney was sworn in as prime minister and immediately called federal elections to receive his own mandate, if possible. Pierre Poilievre found himself facing a new opponent and needing to distance himself from a toxic Donald Trump. The Conservatives began slipping in the polls. The elections on April 28 were won by the Liberal Party and Mark Carney, going into a fourth term in government. The Conservative Party again forms the main opposition. Poilievre, however, lost his seat. He has to find a way to stand in a by-election in a safe Conservative seat if he is to become leader of the opposition in Parliament.

Under the Canadian system, Prime Minister Carney remains prime minister as he was sworn in in March. If he reshuffles his Cabinet, then they will be sworn in by the governor general. Recall that Canada is a Commonwealth realm state with King Charles III as their Head of State. Prime Minister Carney has invited King Charles to deliver the throne speech at the opening of the Canadian Parliament on May 27. This is clearly sending a message.

A first major overseas event and test for Prime Minister Carney will be his meeting with President Donald Trump in Washington, DC, on Tuesday, May 6.

STRENGTHENING CANADIAN UNITY

But, Prime Minister Carney has made it clear that to be strong, Canada has to be united. Thus, there is a lot of work to be done to further unify the country. That is, making all provinces, territories and all peoples within the country’s borders feel that they are Canadians and invested in the country. We may know of the separatist movement in French-speaking Quebec, but we may not know of the differences with the Prairie Provinces (Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta), and of those still being worked out with the native peoples, the First Nations.

The Atlantic Maritime Provinces, which are Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and New Brunswick, had a close historic link to the British West Indies, through the trade in sugar, cod fish, sardines, and financial services.

Each of Canada’s 10 provinces and three territories has a different profile with different population densities. The most populated provinces are Ontario (Toronto), Quebec (Montreal), Alberta (Calgary and Edmonton), and British Columbia (Vancouver).

There are also intra-Canada trade issues to be resolved; the need to remove internal trade barriers to enable the intra-Canada free flow of goods and services.

Prime Minister Carney and his new government have a lot of domestic issues to tackle, including increasing defence spending. Foreign policy is also important to Canada.

DIVERSIFYING TRADE

The country, since 2017, has made diversifying its international trade a priority through its Export Diversification Strategy with the objective of reducing its dependence on the USA. Canada has 15 free trade agreements and was aiming to increase this number and its exports by 50 per cent this year. The Carney government will be continuing on the path to diversify trade and will be working to improve Canada’s enabling infrastructure. Other countries, with Trump tariffs imposed, are also looking at diversifying their trade, thus providing opportunities for cooperation.

CARICOM CANADA RELATIONS

This column on October 25, 2023, looked at the outcome of the Canada CARICOM Summit held in Ottawa on October 18, 2023. Coming from this summit was the launch of a strategic partnership between Canada and the CARICOM countries with a mechanism established for continuing engagement.

In 2024, Canada imported US$653.1 million in goods from CARICOM countries and exported US$695 million. Canada has a trade surplus with CARICOM. On the services side, it remains a principal source country for tourist arrivals in the CARICOM region.

The outcomes from the 2023 Summit provide an opportunity for further engagement with Prime Minister Carney and his team to examine further trade and economic cooperation between Canada and CARICOM. The current situation created by President Trump could provide an opportunity for CARICOM businesses to increase trade with Canada.

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.